As tensions rise between the West and its antagonists in Russia and China, fears are accumulating that proxy wars could evolve into wider armed conflict.

US officials have warned that a Russian onslaught of Ukraine could lead to 50,000 civilian casualties and spark a significant refugee problem in Europe. Elsewhere, international reviewers are wary of multiple hotspots where Beijing might want to make the Chinese military mark over the next period of next 10 years.

Russia

US officials alleged at the weekend that Russia has assembled around 70% of the service force it would need to mount a full-scale onslaught of Ukraine “and is bringing more battalion tactical factions to the border with its neighbour”.

One official warned that a Russian onslaught could see up to 50,000 civilian casualties and the Ukrainian capital city of Kyiv would “fall within days”, prompting a refugee problem in Europe as “millions of community flee”.

French President Emmanuel Macron recited to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin over a five-hour feast on Monday but did not seem to attain a breakthrough. He is due to meet Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, today before informing Putin again through telephone.

Both sides pursued to temper expectations before the conference, with Macron saying: “I don’t have faith in spontaneous miracles.”

Moscow is stressing that Ukraine is banned from ever fully becoming a Nato component and that the group cuts its battalions down in eastern Europe, but Nato has dismissed the demands.

Western allies are aiming to deter Putin with the threat of embargoes, while US President Joe Biden has advised that he will “bring an end” to Russia’s £8 billion Nord Stream 2 energy program if it occupies Ukraine.

The previous year, Ukrainian regime minister and retired top intelligence officer Yuliia Laputina told Sky News that a full-scale onslaught of Ukraine by Russia could accelerate “World War Three” if military action by Putin rolled over into other former Soviet countries.

In a sign of escalating anxieties, Britain and the USA withdraw embassy faculty from Ukraine in a “precautionary” move in January, the BBC documented. The US also ordered families of its embassy staff to leave the nation, warning that an onslaught could come “at any time”. British intelligence indicated that Putin planned to establish a pro-Kremlin administrator in the Ukrainian government. 

Ukraine, The USA and Europe have also indicated the finger at Russia for the migrant crisis on the border between Belarus and Poland. The Belarusian regime has been indicted of “causing the crisis by motivating migrants from the Middle East to come to Belarus and then carrying them to the border”.

Poland’s Prime Minister indicted Russia of being the “mastermind” behind the problem, with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko a key partner of Putin.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba sees Russia’s efforts as part of a larger plan. “When we see settlers used as a weapon when we see disinformation used as a weapon when we see gas being used as a weapon, and soldiers and their gun, these are not distinct components,” he said. “They are all part of a broad technique to break down Europe.”

Indeed, these “flashpoint” incidents may singly seem to have “complex roots”, said Bob in The Telegraph, but the task of Putin is “behind them all”.

“Putin’s Kremlin has been organizing for war ever since he declared the new age of resentment in a 2007 speech in Munich,” Bob proceeded, but the Russian administrators have been “largely resisted by worried Western nations”.

Seely asserts that Putin aims to do three things as his moment in power reaches its final decade: “First, destroy the Ukrainian state; second, crumble Nato and third, cement Russia’s position as an illiberal opponent to the West.”

China

Pentagon officials stay wary that China could begin a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait or different hotspots “sometime in the upcoming decade”, told Michael Beckley, an associate professor at Tufts University, and Hal Brands, professor of global relationships at Johns Hopkins for The Atlantic. While Biden may have affirmed that the US is not pursuing to begin a new cold war, that is “the bad way to glance at US-China relations”.

“A cold war with China is already underway. The right topic, instead, is whether America can prevent China from instigating a hot one.”

Iran

In a clear warning of increasing concern over Iran’s training, Gulf states joined with Israel for the first time in a joint military exercise organised by the US Navy, documented the BBC. It’s a move “mostly unthinkable” only 3 years ago, and pursues the signing of the Abraham Accords in September of 2020 when Bahrain and the UAE normalized their relations with Israel.

Since then, there has existed “an intense dialogue of diplomatic, martial and intelligence communications between Israel and those Gulf nations” as the area is increasingly nervous over Iran’s actions.

Various sides have said, “real progress” has been brought about since late November, but “significant drawbacks remain” on the way to any agreement to renew the pact, reported Al Jazeera this week.