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Finland is on the verge of asking to join NATO. Here's why that's bad news for Putin
Finland ramps up military exercises in case Russia threatens war 02:48
(CNN)Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine has backfired on a number of fronts. But one of the most disastrous consequences of all for the Russian President is the increasingly likely prospect of Finland joining NATO.
The Nordic nation is expected to announce its interest in NATO membership as soon as this week after its Foreign Affairs Committee drafts a response to the government's security report -- which includes the option of joining the alliance. After that, the Finnish parliament will hold an extraordinary debate on whether to approve the security report recommendations.
At this point it is very likely NATO would invite the country to talk about accession to the alliance.
It is broadly believed this would happen very quickly, as Finland already meets most of the criteria and it's highly unlikely any NATO members would object.
Multiple recent opinion polls have shown that at least 60% of Finns are now in favor of NATO membership, a huge jump from a previous high of around 30% in past years.
If this plays out as expected, this country of under 6 million people will have redrawn the European security map in a way that was previously inconceivable and may have tremendous consequences for Russia.
Before Putin invaded Ukraine, he made clear his belief that NATO had edged too close to Russia and should be stripped back to its borders of the 1990s, before some countries that either neighbor Russia or were ex-Soviet states joined the military alliance.
Russia currently shares about 755 miles of land border with five NATO members, according to the alliance. Finland's accession would mean that a nation with which Russia shares an 800-mile border would become formally militarily aligned with the United States.
Not only would this be bad news for the Kremlin, but the addition of Finland would be quite a boon for NATO. Despite its relatively small population, Finland is a serious military power that has been unofficially aligned with the West for decades. Its military has for decades used equipment purchased from the United States that is compatible with NATO allies, meaning it could easily join NATO missions should it choose to do so.
'Survival' ideology
Many believe the only reason Finland hadn't joined the alliance prior to the Ukraine crisis was simple pragmatism.
"Finnish security has always been based on two concepts: first geography and history; second idealism and realism," Alexander Stubb, a former Prime Minister of Finland, told CNN.
"In an ideal world we want to cooperate with Russia, which we cannot escape being our geographical neighbor. But we also know from history that the greatest realistic threat to our national security is Russia. Over time, the reality that Russia is willing to create greater chaos in our region has become even clearer, so joining NATO becomes the pragmatic option," he said.
Historically, Finland has navigated these competing realities by simultaneously indulging Russia's security concerns, however irrational they may be, while also maintaining high defense spending and a standing military that is compatible with Western allies.
"It's always been bonkers, the idea that a Western country would invade Russia, but we have tried to minimize those concerns by boosting trade and cooperating in other areas," said Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a leading researcher in global security at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
He adds, however, that on top of policies like conscription -- all Finnish men are liable to be called up for military service -- and high defense spending, Finnish politicians have consistently sold to the public the idea that Finland's idealistic way of life must be maintained at all costs.
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