Why Stocks Steady as Global Bond Yields Fluctuate: Markets Wrap

Stocks and sovereign bonds fluctuated on Monday as investors weighed economic risks from inflation and tightening monetary policy against prospects for continued growth.  

U.S. futures were little changed, while Europe’s Stocks 600 advanced. Most Asian shares lost ground, with Chinese stocks falling as a virus flareup raised worries over disruptions to business operations.  

Global bonds reversed after an earlier slide, which saw yields on five-year Treasuries rise above those on 30-year bonds. Japan’s 10-year rate gained even after the country’s central bank announced two unlimited buying operations to keep yields below the top of its allowed range. The dollar rose and the yen fell to a seven-year low. 

Shares in big U.S. energy companies declined in premarket trading as oil fell on concerns about demand in China, the world’s biggest crude importer. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks gained as Bitcoin turned positive for 2022. Gold retreated. 

A growing number of money managers are betting equity indexes have already largely priced in bearish bond moves, as equity strategists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to JPMorgan Chase & Co. reassure stock investors that there’s no need to fret about U.S. Treasury yield curve just yet. 

Still, the war in Ukraine continues to disrupt supplies of key commodities, stoking inflation risks that are contributing to expectations of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Mobility restrictions in China may fan worries about rising costs. 

“The risk of recession in the next two years has risen dramatically as we now have a central bank that will ultimately have to kill off the recovery to tame inflation,” said Kellie Wood, deputy head of fixed income at Schroders Australia. “It looks a lot like 1994, where we believe the U.S. cash rate can move up to 2.5-3% in 12-18 months.” 

Tesla Inc. plans to suspend production at its Shanghai plant for at least one day, people familiar with the matter said. The electric-vehicle maker rose in premarket trading after saying it plans to seek shareholder approval for a move that would enable another stock split.  

Ukraine Talks 

In the latest geopolitical developments, Ukrainian and Russian negotiating teams are set to resume in-person talks this week. President Joe Biden tried to temper comments calling for the removal of Vladimir Putin by saying the U.S. isn’t seeking regime change in Moscow. 

Global shares have recovered from the lows sparked by Russia’s invasion, but questions remain about the durability of the equity market advance. 

It may be that what we’re seeing is “more a bear-market rally,” Chris Weston, head of research with Pepper stone Financial Pty, wrote in a note. He added that investment flows related to portfolio rebalancing at the end of March and the first quarter could lead to “big and questionable moves.” 

Some key events to watch this week: 

Some of the main moves in markets: 

Stocks 

Currencies 

Bonds 

Commodities