Ukraine has long played an important role, but is sometimes overlooked, in the global security system. Today, the country is on the verge of a major power struggle revived by many analysts who say it will dominate international relations for decades to come.
Russia's full invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked the dramatic increase in the eight-year conflict and a landmark change in European security. With increasing Western support, Ukraine has been able to frustrate many aspects of the Russian invasion, but many of its cities have been demolished and a quarter of its inhabitants are now refugees or displaced. It is not yet clear how and when the embassy decision will be made. Ukraine's place in the world, including its future order with institutions such as the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), hangs in balance.
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Why is Ukraine a geopolitical flash point?
Ukraine was the cornerstone of the Soviet Union, the last bastion of the United States during the Cold War. After Russia alone, it was the second most populous and powerful in the 15 Soviet republics, home to agricultural union union, defense, and military industries, including the Black Sea Fleet and other nuclear weapons. Ukraine was so important to the union that its decision to sever ties in 1991 was to overthrow a very powerful and sickly state.
In the three decades of freedom, Ukraine has sought to establish its own path as an independent state while looking to work closely with Western institutions, including the EU and NATO. However, Kyiv struggled to balance its external relations and to close deep internal divisions. Many Ukrainian-speaking, mostly Ukrainian-speaking people in the western part of the country generally support greater integration with Europe, while most Russian-speaking communities in the east prefer closer ties with Russia.
Ukraine became a battlefield in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and began arming and assisting separatists in the Donbas region in the southeast of the country. Russia's capture of Crimea was the first time since World War II that Europe had replaced another. More than 14,000 people died in the Donbas war between 2014 and 2021, the most bloody conflict in Europe since the Balkan wars of 1990. To many analysts, hostility has marked a clear shift in the global security environment since the extraordinary era of U.S. rule. to the definition of new competition between superpowers [PDF].
In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine with the intention of overthrowing the Western-backed Volodymyr Zelenskyy government.
What are the broad Russian interests in Ukraine?
Russia has deep cultural, economic, and political ties with Ukraine, and in many ways Ukraine is at the heart of Russia's ownership and vision.
Family obligations. Russia and Ukraine have strong family ties dating back centuries. Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, is sometimes referred to as “the mother of Russian cities,” in line with the cultural influence of Moscow and St. Petersburg. It was in Kyiv in the eighth and ninth centuries that Christianity from Byzantium was restored to the Slavic peoples. And it was Christianity that served as an anchor for Kievan Rus, the first Slavic country where modern-day Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarus all descended from the lineage.
Russian diaspora. About eight million Russians have been living in Ukraine since 2001, according to the census conducted that year, mainly in the south and east. Moscow sought work to protect these people as an excuse for its actions in Crimea and Donbas in 2014.
A picture of great power. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, many Russian politicians viewed the breakup of Ukraine as a historical error and a threat to Russia's standing as a major power. The loss of full control of Ukraine, and the abandonment of the Western route, can be seen by many as a major contributor to Russia's international prestige.
eCrimea. Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev moved Crimea from Russia to Ukraine in 1954 in order to strengthen “the fraternal ties between the Ukrainian and the Russians.” Since the collapse of the union, however, many Russian nationalists in Russia and Crimea have been longing for the return of the peninsula. The city of Sevastopol is the home port of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the leading maritime power in the region.
Trade. Russia has been Ukraine's main trading partner for a long time, although the link has faded much in recent years. Eventually China outperformed Russia in trade with Ukraine. Prior to its invasion of Crimea, Russia had hoped to draw Ukraine to its single market, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which today includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.
Power. Russia relies on Ukrainian pipelines to pump its gas to Central and Eastern European customers for decades, and pays billions of dollars a year for transportation costs to Kyiv. The flow of Russian gas through Ukraine continued in early 2022 despite the outbreak of hostilities between the two countries. Russia had planned to transport more gas to Europe with its new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which runs under the Baltic Sea to Germany, but Berlin closed its project control authority after the Russian invasion.
Political influence. Russia was determined to maintain its political influence in Ukraine and throughout the former Soviet Union, especially after the 2004 Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, was defeated by a revolutionary rival as part of the popular Orange Revolution movement. This shocking Russian interest in Ukraine came after a similar defeat in the 2003 Kremlin elections in Georgia, known as the Rose Revolution, followed by another — the Tulip Revolution — in Kyrgyzstan.
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