The global economy is trying to recover from the Corona epidemic. The Ukraine-Russia conflict has started. Various sanctions have been imposed on Moscow. In addition, China's "zero corona" policy, inflation and the rise in US Federal Reserve interest rates have further hurt the economy. In such a situation, the question arises, is the world facing another economic recession? 
Tara Sinclair, a professor of economics at George Washington University in the United States, says it is difficult to predict whether a recession will occur. He told Al Jazeera that even those who predicted the economy could not say much about the recession in advance. Only when there is a recession can it be understood.
Inflation in the United States is at its highest level in four decades. The country's Federal Reserve is working to handle the situation. The central bank is gradually raising interest rates to avoid a recession.
Experts believe that such a fragile situation in the world's largest economy could affect the rest of the world. This could slow down the growth of the global economy. Just two years ago, the global economy contracted 4.3 percent due to the Corona.Campbell R. Harvey, a professor at the Fukuya School of Business at Duke University in the United States, largely agrees with Bill Doodle on the Federal Reserve's delay in inflation. He is also worried that there is a risk of financial recession. "They (the Federal Reserve) are in big trouble," Harvey said. And are they too late? The answer is yes. '
The Americans are also fearing recession. Last month, the US media CNBC conducted a public opinion poll. As many as 61 percent of adults in the country think there is a risk of a recession in 2022. But economists at Goldman Sachs, a US-based multinational investment bank and financial services company, say the risk of a recession in the United States next year is 20 to 35 percent.
Economists say the risk of a global recession could increase in the coming months if tensions over the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalate and more sanctions are imposed on Moscow. The United States has already stopped importing fuel oil and gas from Russia. Europe is also imposing sanctions on Russia.
So far, European countries have stopped importing coal from Russia. They are also being urged to stop importing oil and gas. Russia accounts for 40 percent of Europe's total gas imports. Oil imports account for one-third of Europe's total demand.
Charles Michael, president of the European Council, told the European Parliament on Wednesday that he believed "sooner or later" action would be taken against Russia's oil and gas. And if that happens, the price of fuel will go up. The price of the product will also increase in tandem.
Meanwhile, China's tough lockdown and border controls to deal with Corona are affecting the country's domestic and global trade. Shanghai is the busiest port in the world. The port has been under lockdown for more than two weeks. Hundreds of ships have been stranded there for weeks waiting to be unloaded.
China's economic growth target for the current year is 5.5 percent. However, Kirsten Holz, a Chinese economist at the University of Science and Technology in Hong Kong, says the chances are slim.
Kirsten Holz told Al Jazeera: "It simply came to our notice then. This will affect the supply chain. The price of goods will increase. All in all, rising interest rates will put pressure on Western central banks. "Whether interest rate hikes in the West will lead to a recession depends largely on demand, says Kirsten Holz. According to him, the demand may gradually increase in the coming days. This will increase the price of the product.
Despite this, many experts believe that the overall economic forecast for the Asia-Pacific region is generally promising.According to a report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday, the growth of developing countries in Asia could reach 5.2 percent this year. It is expected to be 5.3 percent in 2023.
Trin Nuen, a senior economist at Natixis Bank in Hong Kong, says the world is not in danger of a recession in 2022. The real interest rates in Asia are low. Apart from China, the situation in other countries is normal. This is good news for Asia. These will help to predict the future financial crisis.
Despite all this, rising global commodity prices, rising interest rates and the rising value of the dollar, as well as the current economic situation in China, are slowing down the economy, says economist Trin Nuen.
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