The West has reacted sharply to Russia's recent moves and statements on Ukraine. The blockade was announced without condemnation. What is the question now in everyone's mind? Will this conflict lead to a bigger war?
Observers say that no matter how bad the situation on the Russia-Ukraine border is at the moment, there is no room for Russia's direct military confrontation with the US-led military alliance NATO. In fact, the United States and the United Kingdom quickly withdrew their small-scale military trainers and advisers, in contrast to the deployment of forces capable of invading Ukraine by increasing Moscow's military presence.
Earlier this month, US President Joe Biden said that if Russia and the United States fired on each other, it would be a world war. However,
Western leaders are still fearing a full-scale war in Russia's Ukraine. It depends on the identity of the person, where his or her position is, and how far Russia should go next.
The situation is certainly dangerous for the frontline fighters in Ukraine. Millions of Ukrainians are concerned about the impact of the crisis on their daily lives. Only Putin and his loyalists around him know how far he will send troops into Ukraine. The Ukrainian capital, Kiev, and other cities will not be safe from the onslaught as long as the military mobilization continues for a possible Russian attack.
But the red line is for NATO and the West, when Russia will directly threaten any NATO member state. According to Article 5 of the NATO Code of Conduct, the entire Western military will defend itself in the event of a military attack by a member state. Ukraine is not a member of NATO. Although they want to join the alliance and Putin wants to stop it.
Eastern European countries Poland or the Baltic States Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia followed Moscow in Soviet times. They are now members of NATO. These countries fear that Russian forces may not even stop in Ukraine. Instead, Moscow could "help" the ethnic Russian population in the Baltic region and make excuses for the attack.
That is why NATO has stepped up its efforts to build resistance in support of its members in Eastern Europe. Unless there is a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO, the Ukraine crisis will not create a negative situation like World War II.
It should not be forgotten that Russia and the United States have more than 8,000 deployable nuclear weapons. The use of that weapon will bring destruction to all. So it is more likely not to attack on a large scale. The agreement between Moscow and Washington on the use of nuclear weapons during the Cold War is still valid.
A British military source said on Tuesday that Putin was not going to invade NATO territory. He just wants to turn Ukraine into a tyrannical state like Belarus.
The uncertainty here is Putin's mind. Although he is known as a very accountable man, during his speech on Monday, he seemed to be more of an angry dictator than a shrewd one. He called NATO "evil." Ukraine has virtually said it has no right to exist as an independent state. This is a matter of concern.
Russia will somehow retaliate against the blockade of the West. Russia will have an impact on Western trade. But Putin could take the matter a step further. Russia's retaliation could come in the form of a cyberattack. The National Cyber Security Center has already issued a warning. In the case of cyberattacks, it is not often clear who carried out the attack. Banks, businesses, individuals, and even important national infrastructure may be targeted.
The problem is that after years of deteriorating relations with Moscow, mutual trust between Russia and NATO is now at an all-time low. It is in this context that the unpleasant debate over who is responsible for the ongoing crisis may come to light.
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