Leading Conflict
The controversy over the post-Cold War territory of Central Europe and the revival of sophisticated Russia's past is at the heart of the Ukraine crisis. Ukraine and Russia share centuries of cultural, linguistic and family ties. For many people in the Russian and Ukrainian ethnically Russian regions, the common heritage of the country is an emotional issue that has been instrumented for election and military purposes. As part of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was the second most powerful Soviet Republic after Russia and was strategically, economically and culturally important. Ukraine's balance of power in the region, Ukraine as an important buffer between Russia and the West, Ukraine's bid for NATO accession, and Russia's interests in the Black Sea with protests in Ukraine are the main causes of ongoing conflicts.
What are the unique advances in India?
Geopolitical Aspects: India must prepare for some pressing challenges arising from Russia's actions. We need to balance the pressure from one strategic partner to condemn violations of international law with the pressure from another to understand its legitimate concerns. India managed this pressure during the 2014 Crimean annexation crisis, but again effectively manages it. Economics: On the financial front, the government, which was conservative in its budgetary revenue assumptions, calmed inflation expectations, fueled volatile consumption levels, and globalized after India's fragile Covid-19 recovery. There is room for preemptive reductions in domestic fuel taxes in order to maintain good churn. Balanced approach: India-Russia relations ensure that Delhi is not completely left out of negotiations on Afghanistan and Central Asia, while at the same time having some influence on the United States.
The Russia-Ukraine crisis will send cooking gas, petrol and other fuel bills soaring for Indian households and businesses. Higher oil prices add to freight/transportation costs. Depending on how long global oil prices remain elevated, the tensions could raise questions on the RBI's credibility in making inflation projections and upset the government's budget calculations, particularly fiscal deficit. The surge in crude oil prices will lead to an increase in India's oil import bills, and gold imports could jump back up, keeping the rupee under pressure. India's imports of petroleum products from Russia are an alternative, as they make up only a small part of the total oil import bill. However, finding an alternative source of fertilizer and sunflower oil may not be so easy. Exports to Russia account for less than 1% of India's total exports, but as with shipments to CIS countries, pharmaceutical and tea exports can face some challenges. Raising fares can also reduce the overall competitiveness of exports.
Immediate ceasefire: But unlike the Cold War era, the world economy is now deeply integrated. The cost of long-term conflicts is too horrifying, especially in terms of the ongoing loss of life and suffering in Ukraine. The world still suffers from the Covid-19 pandemic that has hit the poorest countries and people the most, and cannot tolerate the slowdown caused by the conflict. It is up to Russia to carry out a ceasefire and bring both sides back to the negotiating table. Escalation is not an option. Europe's New Security Order: Without justifying the way Russia chose "right", which it perceived as "wrong," the current crisis is somehow due to Europe's broken security architecture. A sustainable security order must reflect the current reality. It must be driven from within, not just a by-product of the Cold War order. Even the European order, which does not take Russia's concerns into account through actual negotiations, cannot be stable in the long run. Revitalizing the Minsk Peace Process: A practical solution to the situation is to revive the Minsk Peace Process. Therefore, the West (US and other Western countries) should urge both sides to resume negotiations and fulfill their obligations under the Minsk Agreement to restore relative peace at the border.
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