who country is bes in the World's Fastest Growing Economies (2019_2023

This article looks at the fastest growing economies in the period 2021-2025 among the more than 130 countries covered by Focus Economics. 1. India Average growth 2021-2025: 7.2% India is expected to experience the fastest economic growth over the next five years among the 132 countries covered by Focus Economics. While the country was hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic last spring and the subsequent harsh lockdown, infection rates have fallen sharply in recent months, a domestic vaccination campaign is now underway and recent economic signs – such as PMI readings and trade data – are encouraging. Strong consumption, investment and exports will support growth in the coming years, with a supportive benchmark playing a role in 2021 after the collapse in 2020. Additionally, recently announced structural reforms such as the target to privatize state-owned banks, allowing for greater foreign participation in insurance and market-oriented agricultural reforms, represent pro-inflationary risks. This means there are doubts about the political commitment to push through reforms, while poor infrastructure will continue to hamper growth. In addition, the decision at the end of 2019 to withdraw from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – the free trade pact recently agreed by ASEAN countries, Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea – could hamper the external sector somewhat. . “With Covid-19 under control, the economy has already normalized faster than expected. Front-loaded and higher government spending, lagged effects of easier financial conditions, faster global trade and continued vaccination should all lead to a sharp recovery in cyclical growth. We reiterate our above consensus forecast for real GDP growth of 13.5% y-o-y in FY22, up from -6.7% in FY21, with the budget adding a pro-inflation risk (6.1%) to our FY23 projection .” - Nomura 2. Bangladesh Average growth 2021-2025: 6.9% Bangladesh weathered the Covid-19 crisis relatively well: While growth momentum was hit last year by lower garment exports, massive remittance inflows and recovering industrial production have helped the recovery in recent months. Going forward, the economy should be driven by rapid export growth and stronger domestic demand. In addition, the country will continue to be blessed with favorable demographics: Past successes in reducing the birth rate have meant that the dependency ratio – the ratio of the working-age population to the population not in the labor force – has fallen sharply in recent decades, helping productivity and strengthening public coffers. This means that slow progress in vaccination poses a downside risk. “The expected return of Bangladeshi workers to their workplaces abroad will prevent a sharp decline in remittances; this in turn will keep private consumption high. Growth will also be supported by higher investment expenditures arising from a number of ongoing infrastructure development projects and the revival of domestic activity. The ongoing domestic recovery will be further flattered in the second half of the fiscal year by positive base effects compared to the coronavirus-induced lockdown period in the same period in 2020. The downside risk to our forecast comes from a potential spike in coronavirus in Bangladesh, which could prompt the government to re-impose blunt restrictive measures. We do not expect growth to match the pre-pandemic range of 7-8% before 2022/23.” - Economist Intelligence Unit 3. Rwanda Average growth 2021-2025: 6.7% Rwanda's economy has come a long way since the genocide of the early 1990s that tore apart the country's economic, political and social fabric. Nominal GDP grew from $2 billion in 2000 to $10 billion in 2019. While the Covid-19 crisis has certainly curtailed progress over the past twelve months due to lower foreign direct investment and business closures, our panelists see real GDP growing by an average of 6 .7% from 2021 to 2025. Activity should be supported by sharp investments. However, a fragile fiscal position, low domestic savings and expensive energy pose downside risks. Moreover, the country's impressive development in recent decades has relied heavily on the leadership of Paul Kagame: A possible end to his premiership could mean more uncertainty. "The stability of the regime appears to be assured in the short to medium term. The disruption and economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic does not appear to have significantly changed public sentiment, but issues remain. Developments in neighboring countries and relations with them remain a potentially destabilizing factor. Questions about the succession of President Paul Kagame remain important and factionalism in the Rwandan People's Front (RPF) could arise in the long term. An orderly transition to greater democracy remains a priority if the country hopes to avoid any upheaval. - Jee-A van der Linde, Oxford Economics.