India has entered a 25-year phase that the prime minister has named Amrit Kaal, an astrological term. He said in 2021 that “the journey of the next 25 years is the Amrit Kaal of a new India'' and “the fulfilment of our resolutions in this Amrit Kaal will take us till 100 years of independence.” What are the outcomes expected in or by 2047, when Amrit Kaal ends? Foreign Minister S Jaishankar revealed this when he summed up Narendra Modi’s August 15 speech. He tweeted: “PM @narendramodi set out 5 commitments for New India as it heads towards its Independence centenary:
1. An India that is developed.
2. An India free of colonial mindset.
3. An India proud of its heritage.
4. An India united & integrated.
5. An India whose citizens put duty above all.”
Let us examine these in turn. To become “developed” India must boost its per capita income. To what extent? There is no definition of a developed nation and the world’s average per capita income, according to the World Bank, is over $12,000. The United States is at $70,000, the UK just under $50,000, Singapore is at over $70,000, Japan about $40,000 and Korea $35,000. These are all exceptional nations and perhaps we should lower our sights. Let us say that a “developed” nation is one with a per capita income of $25,000. India is currently at $2,200. It has taken us 12 years to double our per capita income from $1,100 in 2009 to where we are today and 12 years is also our historical average for doubling per capita income since 1960. At this rate, in the 25 years to the end of Amrit Kaal, we will be at around $8,800. Meaning we will not be halfway to being a “developed” nation and, in fact, a quarter century from now we will still be behind where China is today ($12,500). By 2047 our “demographic dividend” would also have fully evaporated. Before Covid, India’s gross domestic product growth had begun to slow and for the nine quarters between January 2018 and March 2020, there was a sequential dip. Something has to change dramatically for this to be turned around, but it is not clear that we know what the problem is or what is to be done to fix it. Such things are no longer discussed in India.The second outcome is that India should be free of its colonial mindset. We can remedy this if we can agree on what this colonial mindset is. Some things are relatively easy to do — such as abolishing English from education and government, enforcing dress codes, renaming roads, government positions and institutions and fictionalising history, all of which we have done. Other things — getting rid of the railways (as Gandhi once wanted), replacing the Constitution with some form of religious doctrine and replacing Macaulay’s Penal Code — though it might prove slightly more difficult. Indeed, Pakistan has tried and failed to do the latter two things.Illustration: Binay Sinha.
One problem is the lack of definition. Mere assertion that we have a colonial mindset somehow means it exists, that it is understood by all or most what this mindset is, and it is understood also what remedying it means. This is not the case of course. Given this vagueness, it will not be fixed, either at the end of Amrit Kaal or ever.
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