Introduction
Although the application scale of ternary battery materials, especially high nickel-positive electrode materials, is far from reaching its peak, is it too early to consider the application prospects of ternary materials in ternary lithium batteries? Power batteries are the foundation for the development of new energy vehicles in China. This article will provide a detailed introduction to the development trends of battery materials.
The core argument of battery materials
The cobalt and nickel resources used for power lithium batteries will be in shortage around 2030, and the development of ternary materials in battery materials is inevitably unsustainable. The new positive electrode materials in future battery materials must be high-potential battery materials superior to the current embedded positive electrode materials. The adaptability of silicon-based materials to new positive electrode materials not only requires improving their energy density but also greatly reducing the cost of lithium-ion batteries.
Electric vehicles require a power source. The specific energy, lifespan, safety, and price of power batteries are crucial for the development of pure electric vehicles, while lithium-ion batteries have the advantages of high specific energy, low self-discharge, and long lifespan, making them the most practical electric vehicle batteries. After more than 20 years of technological progress, the performance of lithium-ion batteries has been greatly improved.
The specific energy density of lithium battery packs has increased by nearly three times, from less than 200Wh/L to over 700Wh/L, and the production cost is about 3% of the original. Currently, the controllable production cost is less than 150 yuan/kWh. But this is still higher than the Department of Energy's planned target of $100 per kilowatt hour. At present, the 50-100KW. h power battery weighs about 600 kilograms and has a volume of about 500L.
Because the energy density of lithium batteries is now approaching the theoretical maximum, the energy density of LIBs is gradually slowing down. The rapid growth of the battery market has made the price reduction of LIBs even more unattainable. On the contrary, in the past two years, the price of cobalt used as a battery material has almost tripled due to the surge in lithium-ion battery production, ranging from $22 to $81 per kilogram. The growth of market demand and the rapid rise in prices have encouraged some manufacturers to cut corners and violate environmental and safety regulations.
For example, in China, the dust released by graphite mines damages crops, pollutes villages and drinking water. In Africa, some miners exploit children and often break the law in small mines lacking Gas masks and other protective equipment. Some companies, including BMW, have established strict policies to promote their cobalt suppliers, while other electric vehicle manufacturers have not done so. The simplest solution for battery materials is to develop inexpensive conversion electrodes for commonly used metals such as iron and copper.
The most promising conversion type is cathode material in battery materials, such as copper or iron fluoride, or silicon. They store lithium chemically, but the technology is still in its early stages. For practical applications, stability, charging speed, and manufacturing issues must be overcome. Experts call on material scientists, engineers, and funding institutions to prioritize the research and development of electrodes based on rich elements. Otherwise, the promotion of electric vehicles will be severely impacted within a decade.
Nickel and cobalt are scarce and expensive
In commercial batteries currently used in electric vehicles, lithium ions, as battery materials, are bound to tiny voids in the crystals that make up the electrodes (these are called intercalated electrodes). The anode is usually made of graphite, while the cathode electrode is made of metal oxide.
Common ternary cathode materials used as battery materials include nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA, such as LiNi0.8Co0.15Al0.05O2) or nickel cobalt manganese oxide (NCM, such as LiNi0.6Co0.2Mn0.2O2 or LiNi0.8Co0.1Mn0.1O2). A 100 kg lithium-ion power battery material used as a positive electrode typically requires 6 to 12 kg of cobalt and 36 to 48 kg of nickel.
In battery materials, cobalt, usually a byproduct of copper and nickel mining, also requires complex processes to separate from other metals. Most ore deposits contain only 0.003% cobalt metal, and few cobalt deposits have concentrations high enough to be worth mining. Therefore, although only 107 tons of 1015 tons of cobalt stored on Earth can be used. Similarly, out of the global nickel reserves of 1015 tons, only 108 tons can be used for commercial purposes as battery materials.
As a battery material, cobalt-rich minerals are now only found in a few places. Congo (DRC) in Africa provided 148000 tons of cobalt, accounting for half (56%) of the global total, in 2015. Most of it flows to China, which has 200000 to 400000 tons of cobalt inventory. Australia's cobalt reserves account for 14% of the world's total and can already be extracted from the deep seabed, but this cost, ecological and economic cost is too high to be fully developed.
Similarly, nickel production is also led by more than a dozen countries. In 2017, Indonesia, the Philippines, Canada, New Caledonia, Russia, and Australia jointly provided 72% of the world's 2.1 million tons of ores. But less than one-tenth of them are used as battery materials for lithium batteries, while the rest are mainly used in steel and electronic products.
Although the mining cost of nickel is lower than that of cobalt, the increase in demand since 2015 has raised the price of nickel from $9 per kilogram to $14, an increase of approximately 50%. In terms of battery materials, cobalt, and nickel have both experienced sudden price increases and crashes. For example, supply disruptions in Australia, increased demand for steel in China, and speculative behavior by hedge fund managers have caused nickel prices to triple, while cobalt tripled in 2008-2009.
Cobalt and nickel are expected to experience shortages
If this situation continues, there will be a supply gap for cobalt and nickel within 20 years. With the continuous growth of demand for LIB, it is expected that cobalt will decrease by 2030, and nickel may be out of stock by 2037. Although we can extract low-quality ore, higher processing costs will drive up cobalt and nickel prices.
Electric vehicle manufacturers and the government expect to produce 10 to 20 million electric vehicles annually by 2025. If each car battery requires 10 kilograms of cobalt as the battery material, electric vehicles alone will require 100000 to 200000 tons of cobalt per year by 2025, accounting for the majority of today's world production. Similarly, 400000 to 800000 tons of nickel are required annually, equivalent to 20-40% of all metals today. When power batteries are used by trucks, buses, airplanes, ships, and motorcycles, more batteries are needed.
By 2050, 500000 to 800000 tons of cobalt are needed annually to produce 50 to 80 million electric vehicles. After 2030, this will far exceed the current mining capacity. Similarly, by 2050, the demand for nickel will increase 2-3 times. By mid-2030, the shortage of nickel will be significant, and recycling will not be able to replenish the supply. Because the lifespan of lithium-ion batteries is 15-20 years, which is three times that of lead-acid batteries in 5-7 years. Once the supply reaches its peak, it is estimated that the price of electric vehicle batteries may increase by over $1000.
What is the future direction for battery materials?
The answer is to use conventional metals (iron, copper) to produce the positive electrode of lithium-ion battery materials. For example, iron is cheap (as low as 6 cents per kilogram) and abundant (76 billion tons). Due to the various defects of traditional iron-rich materials (LiFePO4) and manganese-rich materials (LiMnO2 or LiMn2O4) used as battery materials, the most promising alternative method is to use "alternative positive electrode materials" on the electrodes. If you want to know more about cathode materials, please read the top five Lithium iron phosphate cathode materials companies in China in 2022 on our website. Copper/Iron(III) fluoride and silicon can react with lithium-ion to store lithium and can hold six times more energy than standard cathode electrodes.
The mechanism of converting cathode materials: Its electrochemical conversion reaction is a new lithium storage mechanism that is different from traditional lithium-ion intercalation/extraction reactions. There are many kinds of Electron transfer in the reaction process, so the electrode materials in the battery materials based on the electrochemical conversion reaction mechanism have very high theoretical specific capacity.
These electrode materials are mainly composed of Transition metal oxides, sulfides, or fluorides, among which transition metal fluorides have high working potential due to their strong ionic bonds. This type of battery material is more suitable as a positive electrode material for lithium-ion batteries. Among them, silicon-based materials are very suitable for matching.
Once these two battery materials are successfully used, the amount of batteries used to power electric vehicles can be reduced by half, while the cost, weight, and volume can also be reduced by half or more. However, in order to achieve this goal, battery researchers need to develop high-performance fluoride materials and more effective electrolytes. Engineers need to work hard to develop equipment and processes for using these.
You must be logged in to post a comment.