With former minister Roy Barman and his close associate, Ashish Kumar Sakha, joining the Congress, the Tripura BJP is now three ML As short of when it formed the government in 2018. Having won 36 seats then, this leaves it just three ML As over the halfway mark in the Assembly, with a year to go to the polls and with an increasingly fractious ally, Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPF T, 8 ML As) snapping at its heels.
In the past four years, the BJP has seen several episodes of similar turbulence, including rebel ML As camping in Delhi seeking the replacement of Chief Minister Biplab Kumar Deb, and public criticism of the party and government from within. Barman and Sakha were at the center of most such episodes.
A five-time MLA and one of the senior-most leaders of the state, Barman, had been dropped as health minister for unspecified reasons in 2019 and had been bristling since. The barman said many other BJP leaders and legislators would leave. “You will see this government end up in a minority.”
Two months ago, another BJP MLA, Ashish Dos, had resigned and joined the Trinomial Congress.
The BJP, in turn, has accused Barman and Sakha, a three-time MLA, of plotting to overthrow the government. BJP state president Manic Sakha told reporters: The Barman, drama has been going on for quite some time. A flow chart has to be made on how many times they have changed parties... We are not at all worried about this (development).
Sinking since the BJP took away its space in the state, Congress has definitely got a fresh breath of life with Barman's entry. He has returned five-and-a-half years after leaving the Congress with five other ML As for the Trinomial Congress, followed by the BJP. AI CC in-charge for Tripura Ajay Kumar said Tuesday that the state will see “more surprises”.
Barman claimed that the Congress vote share that had shifted to the BJP in 2018 would return to it with him. “I committed a sin (by leaving the Congress). Our penance will be complete after we establish a Congress government in Tripura in 2023.”
However, it could be easier said than done. Both the CPM's Jitendra Choudhury and the TMC's Tubal Bhowmik welcomed Barman's decision, but clarified that it did not mean they were in a hurry to pull down the Deb government.
Chaudhary said "the question" whether the Left could consider joining hands with Congress would depend on what Congress does. Bhowmik said the TMC was not interested in overthrowing a government by “purchasing ML As”.
The last few elections indicate a widening gap between the BJP and the rest of the parties in the state. The BJP had won in 2018 with 43% of the votes, a huge rise from just 1.87% in 2013. It increased this further, to 49% of the votes, in the 2019 LOC Sakha polls, and around 60% in November's civic polls. (The Opposition had alleged massive ringing in the civic polls.)
The CPM's vote share has correspondingly slipped, from 53.80% votes in 2013 to 45.46% in 2018 and 18.13% in the civic polls. In the 2019 LOC Sakha polls, it finished behind the BJP and Congress.
The biggest slide has been for Congress, falling from around 45.75% of the votes (its routine share) in 2013 to 1.86% in 2018 – indicating that the BJP took away its votes. The appointment of Prado Kishore Mania Debar, belonging to the Tripura royal family, as state chief helped steady the Congress a bit, to around 27% votes in the 2019 LOC Sakha polls, but after he departed, the Congress plunged to less than 1% votes in the urban body polls.
As a leader with a name recall throughout the state, Barman undoubtedly gives Congress hope of bouncing back. However, one of the first hiccups might be challengers within the party. His departure was marked by much rancor, including brawls inside the PCC office between his supporters and others.
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