The cyclonic circulation is now over the Southwest Bay of Bengal. It is extending up to 4.2 km above mean sea level. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is expected to form over the Southwest Bay of Bengal by this evening. It is likely to move in west Northwest direction to Tamil Nadu coast.
During the last 24 hours, light to moderate rain with one or two heavy spells occurred over Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Scattered light to moderate rain occurred over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, and at a few places over Goa and South Madhya Maharashtra.
Isolated light rain occurred over Arunachal Pradesh.
Excess rains have been on 2 counts : late withdrawal of southwest monsoon and timely arrival of northeast monsoon and frequent formation of cyclonic disturbances over Bay of Bengal. During November, South India has been battered by heavy rains thrice between 06&07Nov, 11&13Nov and 16&18Nov. Heavy to very heavy rains have taken turn to deluge different pockets at different times, prominent being Tamil Nadu, South Interior Karnataka.
Cities like Chennai, Bengaluru etc. registered record rainfall during this month. And the distress is not yet over as another deluge wait in the wings to drench parts of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala.
Heavy rains have lashed South India this northeast monsoon season, making it one of the rainiest in the recent past. And it is not yet over and done, more heavy rains are expected in the remaining days of November. The month of November remains generally dry over plains of North, East and Western parts of the country. Rains are mostly limited to south peninsula on account of northeast monsoon.
Excess rains have been on 2 counts : late withdrawal of southwest monsoon and timely arrival of northeast monsoon and frequent formation of cyclonic disturbances over Bay of Bengal. During November, South India has been battered by heavy rains thrice between 06&07Nov, 11&13Nov and 16&18Nov. Heavy to very heavy rains have taken turn to deluge different pockets at different times, prominent being Tamil Nadu, South Interior Karnataka.
Kerala and South Interior Karnataka and state of Tamil Nadu have registered large excess rainfall between 01stOctober and 25thNovember. The last excess of 2019 has been surpassed comfortably, and the margin is likely to increase further in the remaining days of November.
Yet another low pressure area has formed over the southwest Bay of Bengal. This weather system will become more marked and move west-northwestward slowly. Another round of heavy rains, starting with Tamil Nadu, is likely for South India. Next 5 days will spell problems for already saturated landmass of Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala.
Chennai's rains have been on the lower side, with heavy rains being on the backseat for the past few days. It was just about a few days that the city had seen a massive deluge in terms of heavy rains and waterlogging in many areas.
Now, Chennai rains have now made a comeback, with rains expected to be on the moderate side today. However, rainfall will increase soon, and heavy showers are likely to make an appearance on November 26, 27 as well as 28. In fact, the possibility of waterlogging in some parts cannot be ruled out during this period.
These rains will be attributed to the weather system over the Southwest Bay of Bengal, which has become a low pressure area moving westward. Moreover, along with this weather system, a trough is extending along the Tamil Nadu Coast as well.
Northeast Monsoon this year has been a boon for Tamil Nadu and the city of Chennai has already seen large excess rainfall activity. These upcoming heavy rains will only add on to the large excess rainfall over the city.
Localized flooding, water logging and overflowing of water bodies is quite likely. Closely following this wet spell is another strong weather system likely to come up over the Andaman Sea around 28-29 November 2021.
Be safe and careful.
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