This article mainly focuses on three directions: consumer batteries, power batteries, and energy storage batteries, to explore the future development status of global lithium batteries.
Consumer batteries
Consumer batteries mainly serve the consumer and industrial sectors, serving markets such as smart meters, intelligent security, intelligent transportation, the Internet of Things, intelligent wearables, and electric tools. They are one of the key energy components that support the interconnection of all things. The proposal and deepening of "New Infrastructure" have brought new development opportunities for the Internet of Things, smart grid, and other related industries. Among the key development areas of New Infrastructure, Information infrastructure such as 5G, Big data centers, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet and the Internet of Things have strong relevance. The rapid development of the Internet of Things, smart grid, and other industries has provided a broader application scenario for consumer batteries, Consumer batteries are expected to radiate new vitality with the development of the Internet of Things.
With the rapid growth of urbanization in China, smart cities have gradually become the main development trend. In the future, with the improvement of the overall social intelligence rate, it is expected that the intelligent penetration rate of meters such as electricity meters, gas meters, water meters, and other instruments will continue to increase. According to EVTank data, global power tool shipments reached 470 million units in 2022, with a global market size of 52.16 billion US dollars. It is expected that global power tool shipments will exceed 700 million units by 2026, and the market size may exceed 80 billion US dollars.
The consumer battery sector is constantly enriched in application scenarios, driving the rapid growth of demand for lithium batteries. According to IoT Analytics, it is expected that there will be over 27 billion connected devices by 2025. The application boundaries of small lithium-ion batteries are constantly expanding, and applications in smart homes, smart wearables, AR&VR, and other fields are entering a period of rapid growth, which will continue to drive the increase in the market capacity of small lithium-ion batteries. According to RUNTO's forecast, VR shipments will reach 12.7 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 40%. According to Markets and Markets data, the global smart meter market is expected to grow to $30.2 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 9% over the next five years; According to data from CoResearch Network, it is expected that the market size of China's intelligent water meter industry will reach 40.9 billion yuan by 2027, and the CAGR is expected to reach 21.45% in five years. The demand in the traditional consumer sector is generally stable, while the growth in the emerging electronics sector is significant, and the potential for segmented markets is enormous.
Power Battery
The power battery service market includes new energy vehicles, engineering equipment, electric ships, and other fields. The current development of new energy has become a global consensus. With the common goal of achieving a global carbon peak and carbon neutrality, various countries have successively introduced a series of strategic support policies such as a ban on the sale of fuel vehicles. The trend of electrification in the global automotive industry has accelerated, and the prospects for the new energy vehicle industry are broad. According to data released by the Passenger Transport Association, the annual retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China in 2022 were 5.674 million units, a year-on-year increase of 90%. Throughout 2022, the penetration rate of new energy has reached 27.6%, and the goal of reaching a 20% penetration rate by 2025 has been achieved ahead of schedule.
According to statistics released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the cumulative production of power batteries in China in 2022 was 545.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 148.5%; In 2022, the cumulative sales of power batteries in China reached 464.4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 150.3%. In 2022, the cumulative export of batteries by China's power battery enterprises reached 68.1 GWh. The high year-on-year growth in global sales of new energy vehicles and installed capacity of power batteries indicates that the global electrification process is still accelerating, further driving the growth of demand for power batteries.
In the power battery sector, the global penetration rate of new energy electric vehicles has rapidly increased, and the shipment volume of power batteries continues to grow. As a major participant in the global new energy vehicle market, China has ushered in a historic opportunity for the vigorous development of the new energy vehicle industry. Electrification and intelligence are becoming increasingly mature, and their penetration rate in the fields of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and specialized vehicles is steadily increasing. In the first half of 2022, the national ministries and commissions have introduced nearly 10 new energy vehicle incentive and support policies, including reducing and exempting the purchase tax of new energy vehicles and vessels and opening the access of electric passenger vehicles. With the introduction of national policies, various local provinces and cities have also responded positively and successively issued local financial subsidy policies to support the development of the new energy vehicle industry. According to Counterpoint's prediction, by 2023, the sales of electric vehicles in China will exceed 8 million, with an expected year-on-year growth of 40.99%. GGII predicts that domestic power battery shipments are expected to exceed 800GWh in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of about 80%.
Energy storage battery
Under the guidance of the "dual carbon" goal, countries around the world are gradually increasing the installed scale of clean energy and building new power systems mainly based on wind and solar new energy. The energy storage system can play a frequency modulation role on the power generation side, reducing the rate of abandoned light and air; Cut peak and flat valleys on the power grid side to smooth the power grid output; The application scenarios on the user side are gradually enriched, and the applications in fields such as industrial and commercial energy storage, household energy storage, and communication base stations are gradually expanding. With the implementation of China's wind and solar power installed capacity forced allocation and energy storage policy and the gradual improvement of China's energy storage and power Spot market, the profit model of China's power storage is expected to be opened up, the profit will continue to increase, the energy storage will gradually move from the policy forced allocation to the market-oriented development stage, and the energy storage will develop at a high speed.
According to incomplete statistics from the Energy Storage Special Committee of the China Energy Research Association, as of the end of 2022, the cumulative installed capacity of power storage projects that have been put into operation worldwide is 237.2 GWh, with an annual growth rate of 15%. Among them, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage reached 45.7 GWh, with an annual growth rate of 80%. Lithium-ion batteries still dominate, with an annual growth rate of over 85%. The cumulative installed capacity of power storage projects that have been put into operation in China is 59.8 GWh, with an annual growth rate of 38%. New energy storage continues to develop rapidly, with a cumulative installed capacity of 27.1 GWh and an annual growth rate of 141%.
In the energy storage business sector, countries around the world are accelerating the transformation and upgrading of their energy systems from fossil fuels to wind and solar clean energy with the goal of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality and building new power systems mainly based on wind and solar new energy. In order to suppress the power fluctuations after large-scale wind and solar installation and grid connection, there is an urgent need for large-scale energy storage. According to the White Paper on Energy Storage Industry Research 2023 issued by China Energy Research Association, under a conservative scenario, it is expected that the cumulative scale of China's new energy storage will reach 97.0GWh in 2027, and the Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will be 49.3% in 2027 in 2023; In an ideal scenario, it is expected that the cumulative scale of China's new energy storage will reach 138.4GWh in 2027, and the Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2023 to 2027 will be 60.3%; It is expected that in the next 5 years, the annual increase in energy storage capacity will show a steady upward trend.
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