That Doesn't Sound Like Much For A
Country Of More Than A Billion Chinese
But This Moment Marks A Trend We'll Be
Seeing Over This Century Projections
Show That By 2100 Chines, the Population
Will Be Lower Than It Was Even In The
In The 1960s, This Demographic Shift Will Have
Massive Consequences, Not Just For China
But Globally, Here's A Look Back At How
China Has Tried To Manage Its Population
Up To Now
Booming Mega City's Teeming With People
That's The Image Of 21st-century China
And Yet China Needs More Babies
For The First Time In 60 Years, Its
Population Is Shrinking
Despite Dropping Its Notorious One-child
Policy Some Years Ago, Chinese Couples
Are Reluctant To Have More Children
We Feel That The Economic Pressure On
Young People Are Quite High Especially
For Those From Outside Of Beijing Who
Live Here It's Already Really Difficult
For Those Of Us That Were Born In The
In The 80s, Most Of Us Are From One Child
Families, There's A Lot Of Pressure When
It Comes To Taking Care Of Your Parents
And Improving Your Quality Of Life In
The Future
This Is An Inevitable Outcome At The
Moment People Born In The 2000s Are Just
Reaching Their Twenties And Right Now
Many Young People Don't Want To Have Kids
That's Because Of Their Economic
Circumstances And The Social Environment
So That's Contributed To A Decline In
Population Growth
Wine Back To The 1950s And China's
The Population Was Exploding, Fueled By
Chairman Mars Believed That A Large
The Population Was A Key Component Of
China's Strength
But This Led To Poverty And Food
Shortages, Especially In Rural Areas
In 1979 Authorities Introduced A Strict
A One-child Policy For Families Who
Violated, It Faced Hefty Fines And Other
Penalties
But Worries Over A Decline In The
The Working-age Population Could
Threaten China's Position As The World's
Manufacturing Powerhouse Prompted A
Change
In 2016 The Rules Were Relaxed To Permit
Parents To Have Two Children
Two Years Ago, The Policy Was Expanded To
Allow Couples To Have Up To Three
Children
Wow, But Decades Of Social Conditioning
From The One-child Policy As Well As
Economic Worries Mean That Chinese
Couples Remain Unconvinced
We Don't Think About It Too Much, We Only
Care About Whether Having A Second Child
Is Good For Our Family
I Don't Feel I Should Have More Children
Because The Birth Rate In This Country
Is Falling We Don't Think That Way I'm
Happy As Long As Our Family Is Happy
Having Only One Child
China Is Still The Most Populous Country
In The World But If It Can't Reverse Its
The Slowing Rate Of Population Growth, It's
Said To Face A Demographic Time Bomb
Well Joining Us In The Studio Is
Journalist Fabian Hirshberg, Usually
Based In Beijing, Uh Fabian Is Welcome Why
Is This Moment A Big Deal For China Why
Is This Moment Scary, Well In My Opinion
It's A Big Deal On Many Levels
And The Most Important Aspect Is
Probably The Economic Dimension Uh I
Think This Is Really Um The Biggest
Threat To China's Economic Rise Bigger
Then For Example The Trade War With The
Is Bigger Than The Ongoing Real Estate
Crisis Why Because The Consequences Are
Long-lasting Um So Declining
Population Means A Shrinking Workforce So
The Population Becomes Less Productive
And The Growth Rates Will Stagnate So
You Know, Times Of Fast Growth Is
Over That Of Course Has Huge
Consequences And Those Can Be Felt Also
Globally For Example China Is Producing
A Lot Of Goods But If They Cannot
Maintain Their Manufacturing Industry
Because Of The Shrinking Workforce Then
You Know, They Produce Fewer Goods That
This Means Higher Prices And We'll Probably
Also, Have You Know The Impact On The
Inflation Here In Europe Now Is Big
News All Over The World Today And
There's A Lot Of Buzz In China About
At This Moment, There's A Lot Of Angst
That's What I Sense Tell Us A Little Bit
About That Well Understandably So Many
Chinese Grew Up You Know With The
The Knowledge That It Will Get Better Like
You Know Circumstances Will Improve Um
Wages Will Get Higher And You Know
The Economy Is Increasing And In The Last
Decades Except During The Pandemic You
Now The Economic Rise Was Very
Fast But Now This Will Be Over So Of,
Of Course, The Angst Is That We Will Not Know
Sustain This Rise And Of Course, There's
A Short Um Time Window China Has To Get
Rich Before It Gets Old, That's What The
The Experts Say Because of The Demographic
The Change Will Happen, The Question Is How
Fast It Will Happen And Now China It Is
GDP, Per Capita Is Not As High As It
Should Be Before It, You Know Gets Old
And Will Have Stagnation In Terms Of
Economic Rise And Of Course I Mean
Correct Me If I'm Wrong, But One Way Of
The Course To Fight Demographic Decline Is
To Have A Welcoming Immigration Policy
That Doesn't I'm Guessing That's Not The
Case With China, No I Don't See That And
There's No Political Will For That, Why I
Mean This Government Is Um Really
Obsessed About Social Stability, It's
Obsessed About Ideological Control If
You Have A Lot Of Migration, Which Means
Also, A Lot Of Um You Know Cultural
The Exchange also Exchanged With A Different
And Alternative Ideas I Don't Think
That's What The Government Right Now
Wants They Rather See This As A Risk And
What It Bets On Is More Like
Technological Solutions They Want To
Improve Automation Artificially
Intelligence To Compensate With The
Shrinking Workforce But If This Can Work
Out I Mean I'm Skeptical Very
Interesting, So Absent That I Mean The
Government Has To Do Its Best To
Convince People To Have Babies And On
On That Note, I Would Want To
Share This With People Uh Back Home We
Have Some Videos Of A Communist Party
An Event Is A Dating Event For A Party
Members They're Playing Hoops There
Trying To Have The Government Be
Matchmakers To Have Couples And To Have
Families One Thing I'm Wondering About
All This Fabian Is That You Know You
Have A Generation Of People Told That
They Can Only Have One Child, It's A Bit
Like Whiplash Now Suddenly You Have The
The Government Trying To Tell People To Have
As Many Children As Possible, I Mean Is
That's Convincing, I Mean It Doesn't Seem
Like People Are Cooperating Yeah Exactly
I Mean, Many Young People Feel That You
Know It's Ridiculous, I Mean The
Government Acts As If You Know
Population Control Is Something That You
Can Steal Like Veal And You Can
Just Order People To Have One Child Now
You Order Them To Have Three Trials But
What The Real Problems Are For Many
People For Many Young Families Are That
You Know They Cannot Pay The Bills The
Living Costs Are So High That Some Cannot
Afford More To Have More Than One Child
And Also Many, Especially Young Women For
Then You Know Not Having Children Is
Also, A Political Subversive Statement
Because They Don't Know
Cooperate With A Patriotic Mandate That
The Government Is Propagating Because
The Government Says You Should Have As
Many Children As Possible As A
Patriarchy Patriotic Duty, Well That's
Fascinating, So Even An Authoritarian
In A State Like China, It's Hard To Get People
To Do Everything That You Necessarily
Want Now In Terms Of This Particular
Set Of Numbers From Last Year The Dip
Has Something To Do With The Covid Right I
Mean Imagine That A Lot Of People Are
Sitting At-home, Couples Are Deciding
Should We Have Children And Their
Looking At The Situation With Access To
Hospitals, I Mean You've Been To China
All This Time, Tell Us About That Angle
Of It, Yeah I Would Say This Is Even More
General The Feeling That We Had
During Those Zero Covet Times Especially
In The Last Year With The Frequent
Lockdowns Were, You Cannot
Predict Anything In Your Everyday Life
Tomorrow You Could Be Locked In Your
The Apartment You Cannot Plan Anything And
Also, The Econ Economic Damage Was You
No Getting Out Of Control
Um All Those Factors Played In That You
Know Times Are Very Uncertain And That
Is Not Very Good For When You
Want To Plan To Have Babies, I Mean So I
Think Many People Thought About
Their Life Plans And Adjusted Them And
Probably
Um You Know Live A More Alternative Way
Also, Now Um Of Course The Other Issue
With This Demographic Uh Decline Is The
The Issue Of The Elderly Is A Challenge
That's Faced By Japan And Other
Developed Countries Which Are An Age A
Growing Aging Population Uh I Was In
Beijing Once And I Remember Reporting On
And Visiting A Nursing Home Were
The Early Days Of These Kinds Of
Facilities That Were Not Common In
China At That Time Over The Past Decade
We've Seen More And More Of These
Facilities And You Have A Situation
Where It's A Country Where There's One
A Child With A Burden Of Four
Grandparents I Want To Share Some Of The
Comments From People In China Including
The Elderly But Others About The Stress
That Is Creating
Am I Worried About Getting Old, Well What
What Can I Do If I Don't Have Much Money?
The Country Gives Me 800 Yuan A Month
And It's Enough For Buying Food, But It's
Not Going To Be Enough If I Get
Seriously Ill In The Future No One Knows
What Illness They'll Get Right
The Government Should Relieve The Burden
On Young Parents' Shoulders Is Too Much
For Couples To Look After Their Children
And The Elderly
Because Of The Heavy Social Burden The
Sons And Daughters Of The Elderly Have
To Find Work Elsewhere
Many Elderly People Are Living Alone
Some Live With A Husband Or Wife But
Still, Some Live Without Relatives
They Look For The Warmth From A Bowl Of
Rice But Also Want To Feel Cared For You
So Far, You Two Have Reported On
This Issue In China, We've Kind Of Come
Full Circle To The Start Of Our Uh Talk
Which Is Related To The Economy
This Financial Burden Right That The
Country Has Um
Over The Years That You've Been In China
Has The Government Indicated That They
Have A Good Solution For This Elderly
The Crisis They Have To Take Care Of All
These Chinese Well To Be Fair It's A
Very Complex Issue And A Very
Difficult Issue The Elderly Care Is A
Very Basic And Not Sufficient
This Cannot Be Solved Overnight But I
This means There Is Only Really Slow Progress
And Um In Terms Of How Rapidly The Society
Is Aging, I Don't Think It's Enough And
You Know There's A Running Joke For
An Example That Says If You Want To Get
Rich In China Right Now Invest In A
Retirement Home Or Open Up An Elderly
Care Because That's A Booming
Business The Demand Is Very, Strong
But Um Yeah There's Not Enough
Care For The Leader That Will Become A
The Big Problem Also In General For
The Health System Yeah I Mean It's
Fascinating Because, Of Course, This Is A
A Society That Boasts That It Is Confusion
It Takes Care Of Its Elderly And It's
Facing The Same Crisis That Many Other
Countries Are Facing Fabian Is So Good
To Have You
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