New Delhi, 16 January: The third wave of the corona (Third Wave of Corona(Before it arrives)Declining) Picture of R-value (R Value) As seen from the statistics. Infectious diseases in the country (Infection) The R value related to speed appears to have declined in the last week. Experts say it is heartening to see the R value fall as the number of corona patients increases.
Such a declining value
The R value recorded in the last week of last year, from December 25 to December 31, was 2.9. After that the number started to increase. From January 1 to January 6, the figure reached 4. After that, the R value recorded in the week ended January 7 to January 13 is 2.2. This means that the value recorded last week was even lower than the figure recorded in the last week of December. This is considered to be the primary sign of corona oscillation.
What is R Value?
R Value is a unit of measurement of how many infections a person spreads. For every one person infected with corona infection, if 4 other people become infected, then R value is considered to be 4. The higher the number, the faster the spread of the infection. When this number goes up or down to 1, the wave is considered to be over. At present, the number has come down from 4 to 2.2.
Outbreak of Omicron in Maharashtra
Increase in corona patients
In the last 24 hours, however, the number of reported cases across the country has increased slightly. As many as 2.71 lakh new corona cases were registered across the country in a single day on Saturday, while there are currently 15,50,377 active cases in the country, according to the Union Health Department. Dr Sanjay Deshmukh, assistant director (medical), Pune circle, told TOI, “R0 in epidemiology understands the pathogenesis of the virus and the epidemic. The next direction of the outbreak can be predicted using this value. If R0 is 1, it means that the number of patients is stable. When it is greater than 1, it indicates increase in patient population. When it is less than 1, it indicates less number of patients being infected.”
Dr Deshmukh said if progressive R0 (since peak) is decreasing, it indicates that the wave has significantly waned. “Right now, the R0 in Ahmednagar is higher than Pune, indicated by the increase in Covid cases there. Multiple factors have helped bring down Pune’s R0, including adherence to Covid-appropriate behaviour, disease control, higher host immunity, increase in vaccination, among others,” he said R0 indicates the average number of people who can catch the infection from one sick person. R0 should thus be below 1 for the pandemic to recede. An R0 of more than 1 is worrisome as it means that each infected individual will spread the infection to more than one person. Hence, a value of less than 1 is necessary to stop virus spread. According to British Medical Journal, R0 is used to predict the beginning, surge and phasing out curve of the epidemic.
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