It feels as if Vladimir Putin has been watching a lot of Hitchcock.
For months, the Russian leader has been keeping the world guessing. Will he or won't he launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine? Is he or is he not planning to demolish the post-Cold War security order in Europe?
His decision to recognize the independence of two breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine took many by surprise.
But what will President Putin's next move be?
" Suspense is Putin's favorite tool," says Lilia Shevtsova, author of the book Putin's Russia.
He will maintain the tension, turning the fire on and off.
Fathoming what's going on behind the Kremlin walls is difficult enough. Reading Putin's mind is more challenging still.
But his statements and speeches provide clues to his motivation. President Putin is deeply resentful of the way the Cold War ended, with Russia losing power, territory and influence. NATO enlargement to the east has left him feeling bitter. What's more, he sounds, increasingly, like a man on a Messianic mission to force Ukraine back into Moscow's orbit.
" He's looking more like an Ayatollah than an FSB security officer," says Vladimir Pastukhov, senior research associate at University College London. "He has an almost religious belief in his special place in history."
" He will go by stages. First, he recognized the [separatist] regions. Then he will put troops in. Next, those regions might announce a referendum on joining Russia, according to the Crimea scenario. Then, maybe, there will be a local military operation to extend their territory up to their pre-2014 boundaries.
" If he's allowed to play the game by his rules, he will do this for as long as possible. He will cook the meat on a slow fire."
Western leaders are hoping that a new round of sanctions against Moscow will be a game-changer. But Russia is talking tough.
" We think these sanctions are illegal," Maria, a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, told me.
" We understood long ago that this is the only tool the West can use against us, to contain our development… we knew that they would sanction no matter what. It doesn't matter what we'd have done or how we'd have behaved. Sanctions were inevitable."
" But does Russia not care that its international reputation, in the West, is getting lower and lower?" I asked.
Your country is seen increasingly as an aggressor.
You're inventing this reputation, What do you think of the West's reputation? It's covered in blood.
The EU has reportedly included Ms Zakharova on its new sanctions list.
A Hitchcock thriller entertains. But Putin's Ukraine thriller is making the Russian public nervous.
" Most people don't want to know what going on there," says Denis of the Levada public opinion agency.
" It's too frightening for them. They don't want to listen. People are scared of a war: around half of the people we survey think war is a possibility."
Few Russians publicly oppose the government line. But some leading Russian intellectuals have signed a petition to avoid an "immoral, irresponsible and criminal" war in Ukraine. They claim that "Russians have become hostages to criminal adventurism".
" In Russia we have no possibility to influence our government or our parliament," explains Professor Andrei , who has added his name to the petition. "But I signed so that I could express my opinion and distance myself from Russia's ruling elite, which is breaking international law."
But Kremlin muscle-flexing has its supporters, too.
" It's not just Ukraine that will return to Russia's orbit," says Alexei, a former Soviet army commander. "Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, as well. All the countries that used to be on our side."
Alexei remembers the economic chaos of the 1990s, but believes that Russia has now risen from its knees.
" It's a biological process. After a child's been sick, he becomes more resistant to illness. What Russia suffered in the 1990s was like a disease. But it made us stronger. We don't need to persuade NATO to move away. It will give up all by itself."
Ukraine Says Russia Violating Mariupol Evacuation Corridor
Ukraine on Tuesday accused Russia of violating a humanitarian corridor aimed at enabling civilians to leave the beleaguered southern port city of Mariupol, reports news agency AFP. “The enemy has launched an attack heading exactly at the humanitarian corridor,” the defense ministry said on Facebook, adding the Russian army “did not let children, women and elderly people leave the city.” Late Monday, Russia named Mariupol as one of four cities where evacuation corridors would be opened.
More than two million people have now fled Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion on February 24, according to the latest data from the United Nations on Tuesday.
President Joe Biden is expected to announce a ban on US imports of Russian oil and gas Tuesday, in a further tightening of unprecedented economic sanctions punishing Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.
The ban is partly a response to strong bipartisan pressure from Congress, despite the impact, the announcement is likely to have on already soaring domestic gas prices.
The White House said the president would speak at 1545 GMT to “announce actions to continue to hold Russia accountable for its unprovoked and unjustified war on Ukraine.”
According to US media reports, the ban will include Russian oil and liquefied natural gas. Washington’s European allies, who are for more reliant on Russian energy than the United States, will not participate — at least for now.
Meanwhile, German sportswear group Adidas is temporarily closing its stores in Russia and shut its online shop, joining a growing list of companies suspending their activities following the invasion of Ukraine.
Adidas said in a statement late Monday that it would “suspend the operations of our stores and our e-commerce site in Russia until further notice” but continue to pay its employees.
Speaking on the peace talks, Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky told journalists the talks were “not easy”. “We hope that from tomorrow these corridors will finally work,” he said. Russia has proposed two corridors inside of Ukraine, according to Interfax.
Escape routes to Russia and Belarus, its close ally, were earlier called “completely immoral” by a spokesperson for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. A fourth round of talks are due soon, Russian negotiator Leonid Slutsky told Russian state television. “Our president is not scared of anything, including a direct meeting with Putin,” said Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba late on Monday.
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