(CNN) My name is Harry Enten and I'm addicted to the weather. In my teens, I went to Penn State Weather Camp, where I visited the National Weather Service and AccuWeather, and spent a week immersing myself in the art and science of weather forecasting. Around the same time, I was featured in the New York Daily News on snow measurements. I didn't end up devoting myself to meteorology because I hate calculations. However, my reliance on weather forecasts and especially snow remains. (There's a reason I don't move to Washington, DC, as it has an average of less than 14 inches of snow per season.) However, I'm not someone who pays much attention to climate change every day. And as I learned in the last episode of my podcast, "Margins of Error," having this disconnect between climate and climate change is surprisingly common.A 2018 Pew Research Center poll asked people what the most important topic was covered on their local newscast. Time, far and distant, was number 1 at 70%.By comparison, a 2019 Washington Post poll found that 10% say they often talk to their friends about global warming.
This division makes sense. But as we argue in the podcast, we can't really separate them as much as before.
Weather forecasts are an immediate concern for virtually everyone. If a forecast says it will rain later today, you will probably take an umbrella with you. Climate change refers to long-term changes.An aerial view of the devastation after tornadoes hit the Bowling Green, Kentucky area in December.
However, for something that interests so many, there are many misconceptions about the weather forecast.I cover a lot of what's going on in the podcast predictions (so tune in), but one big misconception is how accurate they are. While people love to annoy bad weather forecasters, it turns out that forecasts are better than they've ever been.
They have As John Homenuk of New York Metro Weather told me, there are "amazing minds working on producing these weather models. They've become so detailed. I keep saying (that) we can predict individual thunderstorms, things like that. (One) Incredible boom technology has helped us tremendously. " much more precise.A quick way to know that forecasts have improved is to look at hurricanes and see how the nautical-mile error rate for these storms has decreased.
The forecasting error rate has dropped anywhere from about 70% (for a 24-hour forecast) to about 90% (for a 72-hour forecast) since 1970. To put that into perspective, the mean error for a 72 hour forecast was about 450 miles away in 1970. Today it is about 50 miles away.
This increased accuracy has saved countless lives.In other words, your local forecaster has gotten really good, thanks to weather models and a better understanding of weather patterns. That said, we will probably never achieve perfect accuracy.
A big problem is the butterfly effect. As Homenuk pointed out to me, "Great storms are still very complex and very difficult to understand. ... The joke sometimes in the storm community is that a farmer can sneeze in Oklahoma and change the whole pattern."
Another potential problem is climate change. Although climate and weather are different, the former may have an impact on the accuracy of short-term forecasts.I spoke to Aditi Sheshadri, lead researcher on a 2021 study at Stanford University that explored how warmer temperatures on Earth will affect the weather forecast. The researchers made some models focusing on how different warming patterns could affect the accuracy of weather forecasts in this and other parts of the world. What they found was a "fairly systematic relationship" between temperature changes and how far the weather can accurately predict. Sheshadri noted that we could make more accurate long-term predictions "if the Earth were much cooler." When the Earth warms up, "it's the other way around and this window of accurate weather forecasting shrinks."
According to the Stanford study, one day of accurate precipitation forecast is lost for every 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) increase.That might not sound like much, but according to data from the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, the Earth has warmed by 0.08 degrees Celsius (0.14 degrees Fahrenheit) every decade since 1880. By now, the Earth is about 1 degree Celsius ( 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit). ) hotter than then. The World Meteorological Association warns that the Earth's temperature will continue to rise in the coming years. Here's the bottom line: Those who love weather forecasts but don't discuss climate change should understand the impact of climate change. Weather forecasts may not be as accurate as they could be due to climate change.
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