All's not well in India's neighbourhood. Pakistan has recently got yet another prime minister. Sri Lanka is on the verge of defaulting on its foreign debt for the first time since its independence. Nepal has suspended its central bank chief as it stares at economic uncertainty. And in China, there are concerns that new Covid-19 restrictions could unsettle its economy that just about managed to survive the pandemic's previous phases.
There is a crisis brewing in India's neighbourhood and while the factors are many, the one strand common in all countries is the economy and the Covid-19 pandemic. Here's a quick look at what's going on in some of India's neighbours as far as their economies are concerned.
Once again, a Pakistani prime minister crashed out of the office without completing the full term of five years. Imran Khan, who took over as the prime minister in 2018, came to power with a promise of creating a 'naya' (new) Pakistan. During his campaign, the swashbuckling former cricketer focussed on the anti-corruption plank and his campaign struck a chord with the masses. Imran Khan vowed to make Pakistan better with a 'naya' global image and a better economy.
Cut to March 2022. Pakistan is in the midst of neck-deep debt and high inflation with unemployment numbers hitting a record. In response, the Wazir-e-Azam said: I didn't join politics to know the prices of tomatoes and potatoes.
Less than a month later, Imran Khan faced a no-confidence motion that he lost and Pakistan got yet another prime minister -- Nawaz Sharif's brother Shehbaz Sharif. Sharif too promised to tackle tackling the economic crisis on a war footing. "After the formation of the federal cabinet, the government would come up with plans to overcome inflation and revive the economy," Sharif told the media soon after taking the oath.
But the job ahead is not that simple.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) last week projected deterioration in the outlook for inflation, which has remained in double digits for some time. Pakistan's central bank said the March inflation turnout was higher than expected. It said the average inflation forecast had been revised upwards to slightly above 11 per cent in FY22.
The SBP also pointed to pressure from a sharp drop in foreign currency reserves. Reserves held by the Pakistani central bank dropped by $728 million to $11.3 billion by April 1, compared to $16.2 billion on March 4. The bank said the decline was largely due to debt repayments and government payments pertaining to the settlement of an arbitration award related to a mining project.
Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank has projected the country's GDP growth rate to be 4 per cent this year.
Just like Pakistan, India's neighbour down South is also in serious trouble. Sri Lankans are facing a shortage of basic items such as milk, rice, electricity and medicines. The crisis in the island nation has spiralled into protest and violence on the streets and mass resignations of ministers.
In late November 2019, after winning Sri Lanka's presidential election and months ahead of a parliamentary ballot that would again test his popularity, Gotabaya Rajapaksa gathered his cabinet and made good on a campaign promise to slash taxes. The move, which included a near-halving of value-added tax, blindsided some top central bank executives.
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