It's Exactly 300 Kilometers Straight
Line Distance From Odesa To Sevastopol
So If Ukraine Had Attacked Right Now
They Could Already Be Making Crimea
Untenable For Russian Forces For The
Russian Navy And The Sevastopol For
Russian Air Bases Were The Iranians
Are Uh Helping To Train And Set Up Their
Their Drone Launching Sites All The
Different Things That Make Crime
Important For Russia Could Be
Already Getting Pounded By The Ukrainian
Long-range Fires, I Mean Look At The
The Reaction Of The Russians When They When
The Ukrainians Launched Their Own Drones
The Maritime Drones What Happened There
They Relocated Their Submarine Fleet
After One Drone Had Set A Stop So You
Can Imagine The Impact If They Were
Regularly Dropping Attacks Or Similar
Type of Long-range Precision Weapons Into
The Critical Military Facilities In
Crimea The Administration Can't Bring
They Do Say The Words They Want
Ukraine To Win And So That It That Is
Policy And
Um I Think Uh Part Of This Is Because Of
A Traditional Sense And Somehow Russia
Can't Be Defeated That We're Going To
Need Russian And We're Really Focused On
China And All That
Um And I Think What West The Way West
Said That Earlier Is Better Than I Could
But It's Also Because They Don't Believe
That Ukraine Can Win I Mean
I Know That For A Fact They Don't
Believe That Ukraine Can Actually Win
And So When You Combine That With The
The Notion Of This Exaggerated Sense Of Fear
That Russia Might Escalate Causes
They Did Not Do Certain Things
That Would Help Ukraine Win More Quickly
And So It Becomes A Self-fulfilling
Prophecy Because Of Bad Policy And The
Exaggerated Fear That Russia Might
Somehow Magically Come Up With A New
The Thing To Escalate When In Fact We Have
Been Self-deterring Ourselves Since The
The First Argument About Whether To
Give Javelin And Then Argue About
Whether To Get A Stinger Holy
Hell No, We're Delivering Patriot
And Russia Has Not Escalated A Single
Time Because They Have Nothing With
Which To Escalate Other Than The Threat
Of The Use Of A Nuclear Weapon And Their
Their Nukes Are Really The Most Effective
When They Don't Use Them Because Once
If They Do Use Them Then It's Absolutely
Going To Be Over For Them And I Think
That The Kremlin And Ukraine The
Russian General Staff Believes The President
Biden When He Said That There Will Be
Catastrophic Consequences I Think They
Believe That And That So I Think That
The Likelihood Of Russia Being Able To
Escalate With A Nuclear Weapon Is Very
Very Low And Even If They Did It Would
Not Change Anything On The Battlefield
And They Would Lose Any Hope They Had Of
Some Sort Of Sympathy From Most European
Countries Now I Would Like To Make Just
One More Uh Comment Phil Brought Up A
Patriot Earlier Uh And I Love Patriot We
Had One Battalion For All Of Europe It
Was Always My Biggest Concern When I Was
Commander Of The US, Army Europe That We
Could Not Defend Anything Other Than
Maybe A Ramstein Air Base, I Mean To Take
The Whole Battalion Of Patriots Defends
Ramstein Air Base, So That Gives You Some,
Sense Of The Requirement And The
Challenge And I Certainly Never I
Failed To Anticipate That Russia Would
Use Precision Weapons Like They Are
Against Civilian Targets, I Was Always
Thinking We Have To Protect Ramstein We
Take A More Forward-leaning Aggressive
Stance And So Chancellor Schultz Is Held
Back By That, I think, But Nonetheless I
Don't I Don't Hear It Nearly As Much As
I Did Even A Year Ago When People Would
Say Come On, Crimea Was Always Russia I
Mean That That Nonsense Let Me Say This
Uh Bob
First, Ukraine Is In Fact Going To
Win They Have Achieved Irreversible
Momentum There's Nothing That The
Russians Have Or Can Do That Is Going To
Turn It Back As Long As We Stick With
Ukraine Will Retain Irreversible
The Momentum, That Doesn't Mean We Don't Have
Many Months Left Of Really Terrible
Fighting And That Many Thousands Of
Innocent People Are Going To Be Killed
Uh, I'm Sure The Russians Will Attempt
Some Sort Of New Offensive With These
Mobilized Troops That Are They're Going
To Send Them To Their Death Without
Proper Training Or Equipment Or Even
Halfway Good Leadership
They're Going To Attempt That, But They
Don't Have Anything In My View That Can
They Can Undo This Momentum
Um, I Mean, I Think Of This Since
2014 When This Started And Then You Look
The Latest Is The Map That Shows How
Much Russia Controls
As Humiliating, I Mean The Black Sea
The Fleet Is Hiding And Ukraine Doesn't Even
Have A Navy, So The Russians
Really Can't Do Much More And I Don't
Understand Why We Keep Uh Deterring
Ourselves, I Think That Um The Next Two
Months We're Going To See Of Course
Terrible Fighting Around Beirut, And Uh
Criminals And The Other Cities Up In The
Front Of The Northeast Corner There Uh
But No Matter What They Put Against The
Ukrainian Ukrainians Keep Killing Them
And Um And That's You Get The Feel
That-uh Pretty Soon These Uh These
Terrible Weather Conditions That
Soldiers Who Were Untrained, Uh Are Not
Committed To Defending Their Own Country
They Don't Belong To Formations That Are
Trained And Believing In Each Other They
Don't Believe In Their Own Leaders And
They Know There's No Logistics System
Backing Them Up
Those Cannot
Survive Or Be Effective Under The Pressure
Of Combat, I Think That We're Going To
See The Next Two Months Continued
Pounding By The Ukrainian General Staff
Against Russian Logistics, Russian
Transport Russian Headquarters The
The General Staff Has Really Impressed Me
With How Professional They Are How
Thorough They Are, How Methodical They
Are And They're Setting The Conditions
Now For The Decisive Phase Of The
A Campaign That Will Be The Liberation Of
Crimea I Think They're Going To
Accomplish That By The End Of August
Ukraine Will Never Be Safe As Long As
Russia Possesses Ukraine, They'll Never
Be Safe And They'll Never Be Able To
Rebuild Their Economy As Long As Russia
Possesses Crimea, So That's The
The Main Effort All Roads Lead To Crime And
I Think They're Going To Accomplish That
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