New Delhi: With omicron cases spreading at an explosive rate worldwide, experts in India have projected that the third wave in India is likely to be witnessed in February, but possibly subsiding within a month. M Vijayanagar of IIT Hyderabad, who is also the head of the National COVID-19 Supermodel Committee, said India will have Omicron's third wave and not will be milder than the second wave, according to news agency ANI.ALSO READ: Activate War Rooms, Impose Night Curfew: Center Guidelines As Omicron Cases Rise | Key PointsCover Story (view full-size image): In 1997, a prospective population-based study started in northeastern Germany—the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP). Whereas most epidemiological studies focus on selected diseases, SHIP examines health and illness in their whole complexity. Since 2008, the extensive program has included whole-body MR imaging at 1.5 Tesla. The huge amount of data allowed generating reference values, determining the prevalence and incidence of diseases or incidental findings, and analyzing associations between morphological MR phenotypes and the genome, risk factors, subclinical disorders or manifest affliction. In a retrospective 12 years after initiation, the more than 100 publications that originated from these SHIP-MR data were analyzed regarding which MR sequences were most frequently used for scientific output, or which manuscripts have gained most citations and ranked highest. View this paper.
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Going by the Sudra model, which tracks the country's Covid-19 trajectory, the daily caseload is expected to rise as Omicron begins to displace Delta as the dominant variant.
The Sudra model was developed by M Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad and Malinda Agrawal of IIT Kanpur. Daily Covid-19 caseload in India that is currently around 7,500 infections is expected to increase once the Omicron starts displacing Delta as the dominant variant, said members of the National Covid-19 Supermodel Committee and predicted the third wave in India early year.
The third wave is likely to arrive early next year in India. It should be milder than the second wave due to a large-scale immunity present in the country now. There will definitely be a third wave. Right now, we are at around 7,500 cases per day, which is sure to go up once Omicron starts displacing Delta as the dominant variant," he told ANI.
It's unlikely that India will see more daily cases than the second wave. "India is expected to report one lakh to two lakh cases per day, which will be less than the second wave, said Malinda Agrawal. In the “worst case scenario”, the scientists told India Today that daily new cases may be in the range of 1.5 to 1.8 lakhs in February, and that may happen if the new Omicron variant completely evades immunities acquired either naturally or through vaccination.
Sharing details on the record surge in Covid-19 infections, Malinda Agrawal said that the UK has high vaccine penetration (but mostly with mRNA vaccines), but low.
The panel assumes that community transmission of Omicron has been already started. "Just continue to comply with COVID appropriate Prevention is better than cure," said Vidyasagar. According to Vidyasagar, in the worst scenario, India will not have more than two lakh cases per day in case the third wave grips the country.
Experts believe that the third wave, even if less severe than the previous one, is inevitable.
The Rt value or the effective reproduction value of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has gone up in a few states including Maharashtra. Rt value of 1 means one patient can spread the disease to one other person.
In a tweet, epidemiologist Dr Sridhar Baby on Tuesday said states with an increase in Rt values on December 19 as compared to December 13 are Bihar, MP, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Tripura, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Odisha, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh. India’s effective Rt is 0.89
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