One year has passed since Russia started its invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Significant portions of eastern Ukraine are still controlled by Russian forces, despite counterattacks by the Ukrainian army. Most recently, on January 19, 2023, Ukrainian soldiers left the conflict-torn Donbas region's Soledad, which is again back under Russian rule.
A massive exodus of people
The second-largest global displacement issue is a result of the war, according to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR). 6.3 million Ukrainians have so far sought asylum in Europe. About 6.6 million people are internally displaced within the nation.
Depression and destitution
The UNHCR claims that the humanitarian situation in Ukraine has "rapidly deteriorated." Humanitarian aid is currently required by about 40% of the population. . The country's gross domestic product (GDP), as estimated by the World Bank and The Ukrainian Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food, dropped by 35% in 2022. Today, almost 60% of people are considered to be poor. Around €130 billion ($139 billion) worth of Ukrainian infrastructure was destroyed as a result of Russian assaults.
The UN reports that many individuals, particularly from the regions of eastern Ukraine, are being deported to Russia or are being forced to emigrate there. This clarifies why there are so many refugees in Russia. Several of them have previously attempted to go from Russia to Europe.
Resilience in Russia
The situation in Russia is less dire than anticipated compared to Ukraine because the country's economy has not suffered as much. But, experts predict that existing restrictions will finally start to have an impact once new EU penalties against Russia were passed in February of this year.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development predicts that the Russian economy would contract by 5.6% this year, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates only moderate growth of 0.3%. These predictions for Russia's economic future are extremely different.
Wheat prices rise again.
After the invasion, many anticipated a world food crisis, but so far, the worst-case scenario has not materialized. The US and Ukrainian Departments of Agriculture estimate that the world will produce 783 million tons of wheat in 2022–2023, up from 778 million tons in 2021–2022.
After the Russian invasion in May 2022, wheat prices reached a height of more over €430 per ton but have subsequently dropped to just about €300. When wheat was traded for €275 per ton prior to the invasion, prices were close to those levels.
Ukraine, which continues to be one of the world's top producers of wheat, is currently receiving compensation from other nations. Particularly, Australia and Russia have increased their output. The surge is attributed to "the absorption of the four Ukrainian territories," according to the Russian news service Tass. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture anticipates a considerably higher harvest than the US Department of Agriculture, at 102 million tons.
Furthermore, NATO's military presence on its eastern flank has grown. Multinational battle groups have been deployed to the Baltic States, and regional airspace surveillance has been enhanced.
Ukraine: Putin 'doesn't have a backup plan'
As the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine approaches, former speechwriter Abbas Gallyamov told DW that the Russian leader has no backup plan.
"The main impression is... that he doesn't have a backup plan," Gallyamov said, adding that "100% of Russian elites and half of the Russian general population... understand in general that the situation is deteriorating."
Gallyamov stated that there was a "high expectation" among Russians that Putin would announce his next steps in his state of the nation address on Tuesday.
This would imply either "declaring a big war" and "total mobilization," or speaking "more about peace and negotiations," neither of which occurred, according to Gallyamov.
In terms of the likelihood of a coup in Russia, Gallyamov stated that it was currently ruled out.
"The Russian military, who theoretically have the ability to arrange this through Russian special services, they are literally ruined — their identity is ruined, their self-esteem is ruined by the Ukrainians, by the Ukrainian army," Putin's former speechwriter explained.
Gallyamov stated that if developments in Ukraine do not go his way, Putin will face a serious challenge in the 2024 presidential elections. "Because if he fails to win the war, if he fails to deliver this victory, he will face serious consequences. People are aware of this, "He stated.
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