Complete Offensives reported in Donbas region, where conflict is expected to intensify in coming weeks. Russia also consolidating positions in northeast, while south remains quiet for now

  New Delhi: The theater of conflict in Ukraine has now moved east to the Donbas region.

 As The Print reported earlier, Russia has refocused its energies on the Donbas axis; it has also completed its withdrawal from the capital, Kyiv, and the northern Chernihiv and Spumy axis.

 The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense said Tuesday that the conflict would intensify in the east of the country over the next few weeks. Russia’s focus remains on attacking Ukrainian positions around the separatist-backed cities of Luhansk and Donetsk.

 Russia is consolidating positions in the northeast, while the south remains quiet, for now.

 These are the updates from Russia’s five main axes of attack in Ukraine — the capital, Kyiv; Chernihiv and Spumy in the north; Kharkiv in the northeast; Donetsk and Luhansk in the east; and Kherson in the south.

A Kyiv axis (capital) & Chernihiv and Spumy axis (north)

reports suggest that Russia has completed its withdrawal from both the Kyiv and the Chernihiv and Spumy axes. Meanwhile, US defense officials told Reuters that while Russia had withdrawn from Kyiv and Chernihiv, it does not mean that the threat has completely disappeared, as Moscow’s long-term goals remain unclear.

 As of Tuesday (12 April), no significant activity was being reported from Spumy.

 The Institute for the Study of War (I SW), a Washington, D.C.-based think-tank, reported that while the troops have been withdrawn from Kyiv and Chernihiv, they have yet to be deployed back onto the battlefield.

 Also read: Russia may be firing hypersonic missiles in Ukraine, but there’s some hot air in the hype

 Kharkiv axis (northeast)

On Tuesday, Russian forces reorganized in Kharkiv to focus their attacks on the city of Ilium.

 A partial blockade of the city of Kharkiv continued, while the Russian forces used rockets and grenades to attack residential areas.

 Multiple unspecified units of Russia’s 1st Guards Tank Army and the 20th Combined Arms Army have been deployed to Ilium to conduct offensive maneuvers.

Donetsk & Luhansk axis (Donbas region in the east)

The UK’s Ministry of Defense reported that Russian troops have started withdrawing from Belarus to be posted in Donbas for an aggressive assault.

 The, I SW reports that the Russian Army conducted some attacking maneuvres in the cities of Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and Popasna in the Luhansk region. They relied mainly on artillery attacks for this offensive.

  The Ukrainian Army has also declared that there had been limited conflict in other parts of Donetsk Tuesday.

 The presence of Chechen forces in the Donbas region has been reported on social media, geolocating them in Rubicons in Luhansk Monday  (11 April).

Further, reports also described heavy fighting in Mariupol, with Russia alleged to have used chemical weapons there.

 Most analysts assess that the future of the war will be determined by how the conflict unfolds in the Donbas theater.

Many believe that both sides could suffer heavy losses, making it untenable for them to launch offensives or counter-offensives against one another. Such a scenario could lead to a months-long stalemate, ruining any chance Russia has of taking over the region swiftly.

Kherson axis (South)

According to the latest updates, the Russian forces have not made significant gains in the southern axis. However, they have focussed on enhancing defenses and conducting aerial reconnaissance in Kherson.