After you have acquired a profitable trading system that you have already tested, how can you be sure that this system will generate similar profits in the future?
No one can predict the future, your system can easily lose for years to come or it cannot be traded.
There are some tests you need to do before accepting a trading system, these tests will show the strength of your system and when you pass these tests, it will probably show a profit in the future.
Test 1: Make sure you set a liquidity rule, that your entry and exit prices are visible.
Test 2: Review your trading plans and rules (This is very important).
I have done a lot of trading programs that have shown good results but after further testing, it has shown that I can not follow them in real life.
Check if there is a single stock that has made a significant profit, the system will not be profitable without this stock.
Test 3: Change twice or 3 times on the first day of the simulation, if it still shows good results it means you have passed the 3rd test.
Test 4: Change the value of some parameters or variables you have in the rules of your trading system, you should change one value and go back, change another and go back…
If the results are not seriously affected then pass the 4th test.
Test 5: Try to limit the system to buying 20% or more of the stock you bought previously when you did a back-test. Then do a back-test. To pass this test, the system must display the same results as before.
Test 6: The equity chart should look good, check certain statistical values such as sharp rate, Sortino rate, standard deviation, high deduction, average profit date ...
Depending on the risk you are taking, you should select only the following:
Do not include systems with significant reductions, standard deviations, and average day of acquisition of benefits.
The thing that should be important I think is the middle day of recovery.
The average daily value you have to wait until your equity value returns to the same level before the decline occurs.
Big prices will allow you to wait a long time before returning profits and certainly, most traders will leave their trading system, and that is the worst thing that can happen to a trader because soon after, the system will show very good results. (Frequently)
These tests are very limited and you will probably reject all of your trading plans, but when you trade you will put your money, real money, so I think you should be very selective to make every opportunity on your side.
I believe each one is worthy. As a promoter of value for investment, let me blame the investment. First, key investors buy companies in the mature industry. Having said that, it is easy to predict the salary of such a company. That’s why I rely on investing. I agree to reduce the risk instead of rushing back. Anyone can estimate that a small biotech A company will take an X-profit amount after a few years. But, if your prediction is incorrect, how can you find the right amount of common stock? Your rating will not work properly. The disease comes and goes. The fame of technology and extinction. It may be demeaning to some but I prefer an industry that grows slowly or does not exist at all.
Another benefit of investing in stocks is that you can get a good dividend yield from companies. They are growing slowly and managers feel that they do not need all that benefits to support the growth. As a result, they raise dividend payments to shareholders. This helps to reduce the risk.
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