What happens when robots take over our jobs?
The robotic armor developed by Nachi Robotic Systems operates on a car body at the International Robot Exhibition in Tokyo, Japan December 2, 2015.
Nachi Robotic Systems robot weapons work on the body of a car at the Tokyo international robot show
Leading Partner, Strategic Operations Practice, Kearney
Technologies such as big data, advanced statistics, internet of things, clothing, advanced robots, learning machines and 3D printing are finding their way in the industry.
Despite the fragile nature of modern factory standards, this digital wave is slowly but surely changing productivity, contributing to greater productivity and the emergence of new production ideas that bring design and efficient solutions.
Needless to say, these changes have a huge impact on productive employment, affecting everything from the size of the workforce, to the required skills and industrial areas. Will this Fourth Industrial Transformation lead to a fruitless future of production or will the “traditional” response to education and training allow workers to remain employed?
Unemployed industry?
According to Autodesk chief executive Carl Bass, "The future industry will have only two employees: a man and a dog. A man will be there to feed the dog. The dog will be there to prevent the man from touching the equipment."
Indeed, from Jeremy Rifkin at the End of Work to Martin Ford at the Rise of Robots, economists predicted that automation would make human activities - at least as we know it today - work in the not too distant future. In the United States alone, manufacturing jobs fell from 25% of total value in 1970 to about 10% today, as James H. Lee reminds us in his blog on the World Future Society website. Production and employment, which increased and decreased coincidentally until the early 2000s, now show a growing gap, reflecting the fact that people are being fired by machines because of too many jobs.
Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne estimate that 47% of US jobs are at risk due to "computer-generated" work. This tendency is not just Western; according to David Rotman, “fewer people are working in production today than in 1997, at least in part because of automated technology.” In fact, Foxconn announced in August 2012 that it would launch one million robots in three years to replace human activity.
So will this trail lead to a useless future of production? Not so - or at least not immediately. But there is no doubt that Industrial 4.0 will drastically change the nature of manufacturing operations.
A different type of production worker
Other man-made tasks, such as lifting heavy objects, positioning, and visual quality control, will surely be transmitted or supported by robots, not only being more efficient and effective than humans, but able to communicate seamlessly. Human beings will have to learn to work together and to cooperate with robots. Improved automation will increase employees' acceptance of safe and interactive machines with the same physiognomies as the person working next to them.
This, along with the clothing we wear, which is a popular tax collector we see along with other technologies, will change the traditional form of the blue collar, which will be both sophisticated and sophisticated, but also increasingly supported by technology. It is difficult to predict whether Industrial 4.0 will call for more or less skilled workers, but it is clear that the needs will vary greatly, with a strong focus on flexibility and flexibility, and possibly less technology and expertise.
However, robots are still intact, and their power is not enough to completely remove human space. Moreover, despite ongoing progress, the ROI of automation production has not yet been confirmed, raising doubts about the speed at which Industrial 4.0 gains power. But the transformation continues.
A challenging Schumpeterian change
Throughout the previous industrial revolution, job creation as a whole has been positive, but there is great doubt that this will be true of this fourth industrial revolution. There seems to be a consensus that it will change all functions in ways that we will probably still understand.
Another problem with looking at the future of production work through the lens of history is that it ignores the exponential nature of digital technology. The ubiquitous connection between humans and machines, as well as real-time data describing the Fourth Industrial Revolution, is governed by Moore's law (twice the average operation / cost every 12 to 18 months), while we tend to think and respond in line time. Moreover, this change is not limited to production. It may affect all information and services of the service, thus raising a great question for the public.
The danger we face in the near future is mass unemployment in some sections of the workforce, combined with skills shortages in other sectors - and the political and social implications of this inequality. Will companies, individual governments and society at large (including education programs and social security nets) be able to adapt quickly enough to the new vision and create an environment where everyone can contribute? For this to happen, all parties will need to work together to establish a structured, social and sustainable model for a better future for the profession
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