HIGHLIGHTS
- US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 ousted Taliban from power
- Taliban say they want to form an "inclusive, Islamic government" with other factions
- NATO allies spent billions of dollars over two decades to train and equip Afghan security forces.
Afghanistan has fallen to the Taliban, who took over the presidential palace and rechristened the country as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
Ashraf Gani, the US-backed President, resigned and Filed for Afghanistan, saying he wanted peace and avoid bloodshed. The Taliban, who allowed him to flee, wanted Afghanistan. And, the US, which is believed to have negotiated safe passage for Ghani and its own nationals, was in a hurry to get out of that piece of land. The result is the current situation in Afghanistan. The pace of the Taliban’s nearly complete takeover of Afghanistan is unexpected, as felt by US President Joe Biden and other US Officials.
HOW SHOULD IT HAPPEN?
Ashraf Ghani and Vice-President Amrullah Saleh fled to Tajikistan on Sunday after the Taliban encircled Kabul, the Afghan capital. This happened while representatives from three sides — the Afghan government, Taliban, and the US — were sitting in Doha, Qatar, to discuss power transfer.
It is believed that the US had secured a ‘word’ from the Taliban that they would not force their entry into Kabul until the safety of Ghani-led government officials and American nationals were secured. The latest round of Doha talks had begun on Friday. Taliban entered Kabul soon after Ghani and Saleh fled the Afghan capital.
WHO ARE THE TALIBAN?
Ironically, the terror group Taliban derives its name from the word 'students .' They first started to take form in the 1990s in Northern Pakistan, shortly after the Soviets returned from Afghanistan. It is a religious group that also goes by the name Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. As opposed to their predominantly known image, the Taliban actually claim to be aiming to "restore peace and security and enforce their own austere version of Sharia, or Islamic law, once in power." Even as they continue to seize provinces in Afghanistan, the Taliban continue to claim that they won't take anyone "by force."
WHAT TALIBAN WANT FROM AFGHANISTAN?
This is not the first time Afghanistan is terrorized by the Taliban. Several pieces of literature prove that Afghans continue to tell the story of the aftermath caused by the Taliban back in 1996, when they captured the Afghan capital, Kabul, overthrowing the regime of President Burhanuddin Rabbani. Taliban also introduced or supported punishments in line with their strict interpretation of Sharia law - such as public executions of convicted murderers and adulterers and amputations for those found guilty of theft. Men were required to grow beards, and women had to wear the all-covering burka. More than two decades later today, the Taliban is again seizing vast swathes of territory, threatening to once again topple a government in Kabul in the wake of a foreign power withdrawing. However, in many cases, the Taliban have taken over major cities without a fight, as government forces surrendered to avoid civilian casualties.
IS US IS PART OF THIS?
YES! The world's attention was drawn to the Taliban in Afghanistan in the wake of the 11 September 2001 World Trade Center attacks in New York.
US President Joe Biden categorically said he would “not hand over” the Afghan war to the fifth US president. The Afghan war began with George W Bush in September 2001, days after the 9/11 terror attacks in the US.
- Bush served two terms pursuing al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden, the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks.
- Barack Obama came next, and Laden was killed in a raid by the US marine seals but in Pakistan. In the second term, Obama promised withdrawal from Afghanistan.
- Donald Trump came to power in the US promising he would not let the American people pay for the nation-building exercise in Afghanistan. He began peace talks with the Taliban, who began regrouping helped by wide-scale corruption in the Afghanistan government.
- Joe Biden, the vice-president under Obama, concurred with Trump on the cost of war in Afghanistan. He expedited the withdrawal.
In the end, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told an American TV channel that the “mission” in Afghanistan had been achieved, and the Afghan excursion was “successful.
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HOW DID 3.5 LAKH AFGHAN FORCES LOSE AGAINST THE TALIBAN?
The US has blamed it on the political will of the Afghan government. This means even after 20 plus years of support, the Afghan leadership did not show resolve to finish off the Taliban, who got support on the ground, particularly in small centers and villages due to rampant corruption and lawlessness.
- The Afghan government led by Ghani had a force of 3.5 lakh. It included the police force also. The effective strength of the military was about 2.5 lakh, it is said. Still, it lost meekly to about 60,000-75,000 Taliban fighters.
- Afghan army and police forces have had a history of desertions and high casualties besides corruption. In its 2021 report to the US Congress, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan (SIGAR) raised corruption as the major issue with Afghan forces while estimating that more than $88 billion was on Afghanistan's security.
- “The question of whether that money was well spent will ultimately be answered by the outcome of the fighting on the ground," the SIGAR report said.
On the ground, Afghanistan's Air Force could have been critical in defeating the Taliban, always struggled to maintain and crew its 211 aircraft. There was going to be no fight with Taliban fighters who were motivated to capture power in Afghanistan.
HOW TALIBAN'S GOT SUPPORT?
Corruption and inefficiency in the Afghan government led to indifferent loyalties among the rural and tribal population of the country.
- Taliban and their supporters controlled the madrasas in Afghanistan even during American presence as the government failed to take over the education system. They prepared the ground for the Taliban, much like in the 1990s when they took over Afghanistan, promising to end corruption.
- While many countries criticized the Taliban, none came out to support the Afghan government's fight against the Taliban fighters.
- On the other hand, the Taliban got active support from Pakistan, Saudi Arabian groups, the UAE, and Qatar, where the so-called peace talks were held. Islamic nations, in general, stayed away from criticizing or putting pressure on the Taliban.
- Pakistan Army’s Inter-State Intelligence (ISI) is said to have channeled funds from different Islamic groups from across the countries to the Taliban, who earn millions of dollars in the illegal trade of opium. Taliban’s drug trade is also reportedly facilitated through the networks built by the ISI.
WHAT COULD BE THE TALIBAN'S IMPACT ON INDIA?
In the 1990s, India apparently has a channel of communication with the Taliban. Though India has closed four consulates and evacuated staff from its embassy in Kabul, it has been on “wait and watch” mode. It did not get involved with the Afghan government despite calls seeking military support to the ousted regime — a demand made in public by the Taliban.
However, there are concerns that the return of the Taliban may embolden terrorist groups working from Pakistan, which has been the ‘friend, philosopher, and guide’ to the Taliban and also sponsors anti-India terrorist outfits, including Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.
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