The world's widest glacier, dubbed the "Doomsday Glacier" because its collapse might set off a chain of events that will force millions of people to flee their homes and become climate refugees, is showing signs of collapse.
The Thwaites Glacier is the size of Florida and is located in Alaska. What happens to it in the coming years could have a significant impact on human (and Earth's) history.
Thwaites Glacier, located in western Antarctica, currently dumps 50 billion tonnes of ice into the ocean every year. As a result, the glacier is already responsible for around 4% of the global yearly sea-level rise. This is because as the temperature rises enough to enable ice to belch into the sea, the ice slowly melts, increasing the overall volume of water in the ocean.
Fortunately, the Thwaites Glacier has an eastern ice shelf that holds back a substantially larger amount of ice. If all of the ice upstream in the glacier's drainage basin melted, our oceans would rise by more than two feet.
- Scientists now believe there are clues that this frightening scenario may occur.
Researchers at the annual conference of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) stated that the Thwaites Glacier is becoming unstable at its fundamental foundation during a virtual press briefing on Monday. The Amundsen Sea glacier, which stretches for 80 miles and reaches depths of 2,600 to 3,900 feet, begins as an ice mass linked to underwater land known as a seamount before taking on a life of its own as a floating ice shelf. The glacier's grip has lessened as the ocean water has warmed and reached the area where it lies atop the seamount. As a result, the glacier has developed surface fractures that run like spiderwebs over it.Thwaites Glacier, like a glass window, could shatter if enough cracks form. Scientists are concerned that this could happen to Thwaites Glacier.
Thwaites has been degrading for some time; since 2000, it has lost 1,000 billion tonnes of ice. If the ice shelf begins to collapse, the best-case scenario is that it will do so gradually, but even then, a two-foot rise in sea level is almost certain.That could just be the beginning, according to Ted Scambos, a senior research scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and the primary coordinator of the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration.
- The dramatic developments in Thwaites Glacier have caused worry among climate scientists who spoke with Salon.
Dr. Michael E. Mann, a renowned professor of atmospheric science at Penn State University, told Salon via email, "This isn't the lynchpin for the collapse of the west Antarctic ice sheet, but it's a disturbing development that highlights the urgency of measures to decarbonize our society." He went on to say that "it's a huge step on the road to the collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet and severe inundation of our shores. This is a concerning sign that emphasises the importance of taking action on climate change. "
Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder agreed, telling Salon via email that "The dangers will most certainly be felt for many years, but the difficulty is that these processes are difficult to reverse." Even if global warming is halted, sea levels will continue to rise, wreaking havoc on coastal cities.
Indeed, catastrophic coastal flooding due to rising sea levels will be one of the biggest concerns brought on by climate change. According to a paper published in the journal Environmental Research Letters in October, our atmosphere already has enough carbon dioxide locked in it that some sea level rise (and consequently coastal flooding) is unavoidable. According to the scientists, about 5% of the population (about 390 million people) lives in cities, towns, and other coastal settlements that would be flooded as a result of climate change. Around 6.7 percent of the population of New York City lives on land that will be under the high tide line.
The amount of coastal flooding will be substantially higher in worst-case circumstances. Asian countries are expected to be hit particularly hard, but the US will not be spared. More than 9 million Americans (about 2.8 percent of the population) would be directly impacted if global warming raises global temperatures by 1.5 degrees Celsius.If the temperature rises to 3°C, 7.9% of the American population, or about 26 million people, will face increasing sea levels where they reside.
The melting of Thwaites Glacier isn't the only canary in the climate change coal mine. A contentious analysis published earlier this year in the journal Nature Climate Change suggested that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a series of ocean currents, may be diminishing. If that happens, or if it shuts down, sea levels will rise along the eastern seaboard of North America. Furthermore, temperatures in Europe would plunge, while people in India, South America, and Western Africa would face food shortages.
In fact, in addition to rising sea levels as the Earth heats, there will be a slew of other issues as well. As a result of supply chain disruptions, food, microchips, and other essential commodities will be in limited supply. Extreme weather phenomena such as hurricanes and thunderstorms will become significantly more common, and wildfires will ravage particularly dry areas on a regular basis. Due to heat and dryness, large areas of land will become more difficult to occupy, and diseases will become more frequent as overcrowding worsens. Sea level rise will be a major issue, but it will only be the beginning.
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