No country is known to have used autonomous weapons yet. Their potential use is controversial because they would select and attack targets without human supervision. Arms control groups are campaigning for binding international agreements to cover their use, like the ones we have for chemical and biological weapons, before they are deployed. However, progress is hampered by world events.
A group of UN governmental experts will hold its final meeting on autonomous weapons from 25 to 29 July. The group has been looking into the matter since 2017 and, according to insiders, there is still no agreement. Russia opposes international legal controls and is now boycotting the discussions, for reasons related to its invasion of Ukraine, making a unanimous agreement impossible.
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"The United Nations process operates under a consensus mechanism, so there is no possibility for a total ban on autonomous weapons," says Gregory Allen at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC. Yet there may still be a way to progress, he says, through the widespread adoption of a code of conduct.
Such a code could be based on Directive 3000.09, the first national autonomous weapons policy, introduced in the United States in 2012. This was revised under the Pentagon's obligation to review the rules every 10 years.
Allen says Directive 3000.09 is widely misunderstood as a ban on autonomous weapons in the United States. In reality, he sets the criteria that such weapons must meet and a demanding approval process, with the aim of minimizing the risks to friendly forces or civilians. There are exceptions, such as anti-missile systems and anti-personnel mines. Allen says the rules are so strict - for example, they require the approval of the highest-ranking officer in the US military - that no system has yet been revised.
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If Russia uses autonomous weapons in Ukraine, attitudes could change. Russia has KGB vagrant ammunition that can be used autonomously. These have the ability to wait in a specific area and attack when a target is detected by the device. Allen doubts they were used independently, but says Russia sent similar Lancet wandering ammunition to its troops in Ukraine in June. These have the ability to find and attack targets unsupervised. There are no reports that have in standalone mode.
"Can I guarantee, if Russia deploys these weapons, some people in the US government will demand 'we know, or will we need comparable capabilities later for effective deterrence?'" Says Allen.
Mark Guard of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill also says that any reports of autonomous weapons used in Ukraine will increase Western enthusiasm for such weapons or resistance to arms control demands.
Allen says Lancet ammunition is unlikely to meet the criteria of Directive 3000.09, which requires less than 1 in a million errors. This is easier to achieve for anti-aircraft missiles than for weapons like the Lancet, which must distinguish military trucks from many other vehicles such as school buses.
2J14R9X, Twenty-nine Palms, USA. September 24, 2021. A lethal miniature aircraft missile system Switchblade 300 of the United States Marine Corps in the ground capture system during a training exercise at Marine Corps Combat Center Twenty nine Palms, September 24, 2021, in Twenty nine Palms, California. Credit: Cpl. Alexis Mo radian / US Marine Corps / Ala my Live News
The Switchblade 300 miniature airborne missile system
Cpl. Alexis Mo radian / US Marine Corps / Ala my Live News
Incoming weapons may meet the criteria. Drone-maker Environment demonstrated that an automatic target recognition system can identify 32 types of tanks. This could be used to convert its operator-controlled Switchblade stray ammunition to autonomous. The switchblade knives are currently being supplied to Ukraine and could be used to target Russian artillery positions from long range. The environment recognizes that deploying such a weapon independently raises ethical questions.
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Allen says Ukraine's extensive use of radio frequency disturbance, which interrupts contact between human operators and drones, will increase interest in autonomous weapons, which don't need a link to maintain.
Guard doubts Michael Horowitz, the director of the Pentagon's Emerging Capabilities Policy Office, which is spearheading the revision of Directive 3000.09, will call for stricter rules.
Allen also says that the directive's revision likely won't change much, but it could add details on issues like machine learning and when progress requires re-evaluating a system.
The US Department of Defense did not respond to a request for comment prior to publication.
In the absence of binding international laws or codes of conduct, autonomous weapons will continue to develop. Conflicts like the one in Ukraine will drive demand for new and better weapons, and it may only be a matter of time before killer robots advance onto the battlefield.
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