Speaking in a rare public interview, Lt. General Sir Jim Hockenhill also said he was closely monitoring the potential use of nuclear weapons by Russia. On February 23 this year, General Hockenhill was working late into the night in his office. He cycled home at midnight, and fell asleep at around 01:00. An hour later, he got a call that unusual activity had been spotted on the Ukrainian border, after which he rode his bicycle back to the office.
Shortly after, it was confirmed that Russia had indeed attacked its neighbor. Minutes later, he was briefing the British Prime Minister and Defense Secretary on the start of Europe's biggest armed conflict since World War II.
General Hawkenhill says that in November last year he was convinced that Russia was going to attack Ukraine General Haverhill has spent the past four years as the head of Defense Intelligence, running an organization that deals with information of a highly classified and sensitive nature.
The war in Ukraine has made not only the agency's work, but also their own, more important. General Hockenhill says that in November last year he was convinced that Russia was going to invade Ukraine. He says that was when he thought, 'it's going to happen.' A week before the attack, he made the highly unusual decision to post a map of Russia's possible attack plans on Twitter. He says it was a decision that was not easy, but he was convinced that this information needed to be put into the public domain.
General Hockenhill says that 'before the lie is exposed, the truth must be exposed.' He also defends the Western decision to raise awareness of Russia's potential use of chemical and biological weapons. They believe that this has helped them, Russia, to prevent Ukraine and the West from carrying out so-called false flag operations. The purpose of these operations was to blame Ukraine and the West for starting the conflict. This much intelligence has rarely been shared with the public before. Defense Intelligence has been publishing daily updates during the war since the attack.
General Hawkenhill says there has been a lack of trust between Russia's political and military elites, and he is surprised that Moscow is facing all of these problems at the same time.
What will happen next?
"We shouldn't think in binary terms that people are winning or losing, or that it's a stalemate," says General Hockenhill. He says that Russia has clearly suffered too much and is now looking to build up its forces. It is having to withdraw its troops from the Donbas region and redeploy them in the south. They say they are under pressure from Ukrainian forces in Kherson and its surrounding areas. However, General Hockenhill says it is unrealistic to expect a decisive change in the southern region in the coming months.
He says he can understand Ukraine's desire to regain territory, but there will be counterattacks and retaliation. And they do not believe that decisive action will be taken by either side this year. Rather, they believe that this will prove to be a long-term conflict.
The option of using nuclear weapons.
This situation raises some more important questions - what will President Vladimir Putin do if he continues to struggle to achieve his military goals? Can they resort to using nuclear weapons? General Hockenhill says he is keeping a "very close" eye on it.
China considerations:
Beijing has been increasing its military might against Taiwan in recent weeks. General Hockenhill says it is remarkable that a country with military innovation wants to solve a problem politically. So it can be said that the work of British military intelligence is not going to be easy.
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