In 2019, the Tour de France changed its rules so that teams consisted of eight riders instead of nine. Christian Prudhomme, director of the Tour, justified the decision by citing safety issues (fewer riders, therefore less risk of crashes) and the dynamism of the race (fewer riders, therefore fewer locked-in stages). The change was initially proposed in 2017 by the International Cycling Union (UCI), and other major races such as the Tour d’Italie (the Giro) et the Tour d’Espagne (the Vuelta) also followed suit.
The top-right quadrant (in orange) corresponds to Tours where the number of riders wearing the yellow jersey has varied greatly, but the final gap is significant. This is a classic pattern during the 1980s when large gaps were created. These are “open and then closed” Tours.
The bottom-left quadrant (in blue) shows Tours where the final gaps are smaller but the control of the yellow jersey is higher. These are the “controlled” Tours, the basic trend of the 2010s with the victories of the British team Sky with Bradley Wiggins, Christopher Froome and Geraint Thomas.
The racing patterns of Spain’s Miguel Indurain in the 1990s are linked to this category. With the strength of his team and his domination of the time trial, the winner does not need to open up a big gap. It is a scientific management of the race where the “marginal gains” prove decisive and the suspense is short-lived.
The bottom-right quadrant corresponds to the most interesting Tours de France – in our opinion – because the final gap is small and there was a strong variation in the yellow jersey holders. They include 1983 (the first victory of Laurent Fignon, with 20 different stage winners), 1987 (Irishman Stephen Roche and his neck-and-neck race with Spanish rival Pedro Delgado), 1989 (which ended with American Greg LeMond winning by a mere 8 seconds over Laurent Fignon) and 1990 (also won by LeMond). The 2019 Tour de France, with the victory of Colombian Egan Bernal and the pugnacity of France’s Julian Alaphilippe, was a pleasant surprise.
Our results clearly indicate the advent of races where the gaps are small but where the final winner emerges very early on; these “controlled” Tours are dominant in the recent past (2010s).
Yes, the cycling authorities are right to change the rules of the races to encourage more dynamism, but the Tours back in the “glory days” were not necessarily more exciting. Certainly, the reduction in the gaps between the frontrunners suggests that the latest Tours de France show a greater control of the race: the winner, without failing, keeps his opponents at a close distance. The banning of technology (earpieces, power meters, GPS) may make sense, but the recent trend is similar to that of the 1970s, which were devoid of such informational tools.
Technology does not explain everything, and regulation of team composition seems more sensible than a ban on technology used in racing (like the 2009 attempt).
The question of the viewer’s perception of the race also seems to be crucial to better understand the problem. Historically, the Tour has been a race magnified by the written press and then by the radio, which have capitalised on a few race facts to tell what the audience could not see.
The stages are now covered in full, with cameras more important than pens, GPS transponders placed on the bikes and the real-time processing of data indicate to everyone the precise position of the riders.
Uncertainty, in economic theory, is based on an absence of information. The viewer is less and less in a state of uncertainty and this changes his or her perception of the race. As a result, a moderating effect may appear, which indicates that races without a real battle will be perceived as much more boring, whereas races with a lot of action will be more appreciated. This effect amplifies the relationship between the actual event and the viewer’s perception of it, will continue to grow with the technologies available to the viewers and the media.
It is therefore even more crucial that the rules be modified, possibly in a heuristic way, to encourage the appearance of exciting race events. It’ll be interesting to see how the 2022 Tour turns out, to find which quadrant it ends up in.
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