Last Month, French President Emmanuel
Macron Hit The Headlines When He
Suggested That The West Should Provide
Russia With Quote Security Guarantees In
The Event Of A Negotiated Settlement
Over Ukraine, Which Would Basically
Involve Promising Putin Not To Expand
NATO, Further Eastwards Or Deploy Weapons
Or Troops Near Russia's Territory
Unsurprisingly Macron's Comments
Provokes Outrage In Ukraine, Alex,
Daniel, Secretary Of The Ukrainian
National Security And Defense Council
Described Macron's Ideas As Carpet
Diplomacy While Mikhail Padolyak, One Of
Heli-ski's Main Advisors Suggested That
The World Should Instead Be Seeking
Security Guarantees From Russia
Nonetheless, This Isn't An Unprecedented
The Idea of The US, Provided Japan With
Security Guarantees Of A Sort In The
The Aftermath Of World War I With 1960
Treaty Of Mutual Cooperation And
Security That Required US, Forces
Stationed In Japan To Defend Japan In
The Event Of A Foreign Invasion And More
Recently German Chancellor Olaf Schultz
Alluded To Something Similar, Only A Few
Days Before When He Suggested That
Europe Should Return To The Pre-war
Peace Order With Russia And Resolve
Quote All Common Security Issues So In
This Video, We Thought We'd Try This And
Figure Out In The Event Of A Negotiated
Settlement Of What The Pros And Cons Are
For The West To Provide Security
Guarantees To Russia
As We See It, There Were Three
Arguments Against Providing Security
Guarantees To Russia
The First Is A Kind Of Moral Argument
That Putin And The Kremlin Don't Deserve
To Incur Any Kind Of Benefit From Their
Invasion
The Second Is A Deterrent Argument That
Granting Concessions To Russia Will Only
Encourage Putin And Other Dictators To
Engage In Further Wars Of Aggression In
The Future
The Third Argument Is That Providing The
Kremlin With NATO, Related Security
Guarantees Would Be To Tacitly Endorse
Putin's Spheres Of Influence Narrative
Which Claims That Russia Was Provoked
Into Invading Ukraine Through NATO, Eastwards,
Expansion Into Russia's Sphere Of
An Influence That Is Well Dubious At Best
Let's Start With The Moral Argument
Which Is The One Ukrainian Officials
Usually, Appeal To Them When They're Resisting
Macron's Dovish Suggestions Largely
Because It's Probably The Most
The Politically Powerful Argument This Is
What Danilo, Is Doing When He Invokes
The Nuremberg Trials And Talks About The
Ukrainian Blood On Putin's Hands The
The Idea Here Is That If The West Provides
Russia With Security Guarantees Say By
Agreeing Not To Accept Ukraine Into NATO,
Or Deploying Certain Weapon Systems On
NATO, Members Bordering Russia Than Putin
Will Have Benefited In Some Way The
The Russian President Has Long Complained
About NATO's Eastwards, Expansion, And If
His Invasion Ends Up Guaranteeing
Against This Putin, Will Have Gained
Something From His Invasion
Many People, Especially Ukrainians
There's Something Morally Unpalatable
About Essentially Rewarding Putin For
Causing Untold Amounts Of Suffering,
across the European continent, the second
the argument is that rewarding Putin with this
the way will encourage Putin and other
ambitious neo-imperialists to Stage
similar Wars of Conquest in the future
if Putin feels he won something from
invading Ukraine this time what's to
stop him from doing it again, similarly if
someone like says Xi Jinping sees that
invading smaller neighbors pays
dividends, then they might be encouraged
to take a pot at Taiwan safe in the
the knowledge that even if the military
massively underperforms as the Russian
the military has in Ukraine, the West will
eventually, cave to your security demands
however unreasonable they may be and the
the third argument is about exactly that
Putin's fears of influence narrative
which motivates his concerns about
NATO-Related security guarantees claims
that Russia was provoked into invading
Ukraine by NATO's Eastwards, expansion
some people argue that providing Putin
with security, guarantees would amount to
tacitly endorsing his narrative despite
the fact that it's pretty dubious
while NATO has indeed expanded eastwards
since its inception in 1949, this isn't
so much because the Americans wanted to
encroach on Russia's spheres of
influence, but rather because many
European countries independently
expressed their intention to sign up to
the alliance, largely because it's proven
arguably the most successful defensive
military Alliance in history now whether
or not, you're sympathetic to Putin's
the narrative will depend on lots of things
including whether you're more of a
realist or a liberal and whether you
believe the Soviet or American account
of NATO's early history, but lots of
people argue that the West shouldn't
endorse such dubious narratives Not only
would this be in some sense disingenuous
after all, it would involve endorsing a
a narrative that most western politicians
take to be false for instrumental
reasons but the International Community
also has an interest in maintaining a
high bar when it comes to justifications
for war and tacitly accepting Putin's
fears of influence justification won't
help so those are the arguments against
providing security guarantees to Putin
what about the arguments in favor of
doing so well as we see it there were
two main arguments in favor of providing
Putin with security guarantees first it
might make a successful peace
negotiation more likely and second it
might make any piece more likely to hold
in the future, let's start with the first
one that it'll make a peace settlement
more likely essentially some people
usually, self-described realists argue
that any peace settlement will
ultimately require concessions by both
sides and that as a form of concession
security guarantees open the door for a
successful peace settlement
if you accept this line of reasoning and
that a peace settlement is indeed a good
the idea of offering security guarantees
make sense now most Ukrainians don't buy,
This Argument Both Because They Consider
Calls For Peace Are Premature Given The
State Of Affairs On The Battlefield And
Because They Consider Conditions On
Ukraine's Relationship With Nato An
Unacceptably High Price For Peace But
This Is Presumably What Macron Was
Thinking About Early December The
The Second Argument Is That Security
Guarantees Make A Peace Settlement More
Likely To Survive Essentially Some
People Including More Dovish Western
Politicians Worry That If Putin Fails To
Extract The Security Guarantees Then His
Continuing Anxieties About NATO,
Enlargement And The Political Pressure
On Him, Will Make A Renewal Of Violence
More Likely In The Future On The Other
Hand If The West Agrees Not To Expand
NATO, Further Or Maybe Restrict
Deployments On NATO's Eastern Flank
Putin Might Feel Less Threatened And So
Be Less Likely To Restart The Conflict
Again, We Should Say That Kyiv Doesn't
Accept This Line Of Reasoning And Both
Danilo And Have Argued That In
Reality Security Guarantees For Ukraine
And Perhaps Russia's Demilitarization
Would Be A Better Way To Stabilize The
Conflict, But Macron Presumably Thinks
That Is As Long As Russia's Total
Demilitarization Looks Unlikely in A Stable
Peace Will Instead Require A Settlement
Acceptable To Moscow, So Those Are The
Arguments For And Against Providing
Russia With Security Guarantees In
Keeping With Our Neutrality, We're Not
Going To Take A Side On The Issue, But We
Nonetheless., Hope You Found This Video
Interesting And Informative Also We'd
Love To Hear Your Thoughts On This Topic
And The Current State Of Russia
Ukraine Crisis More Generally Obviously
We've Just Entered A New Year And With
The Conflict Still Rumbling On Its Only
Natural That New Questions Are Being
Raised Rightly Or Wrongly So In The
Comments Below Are Sure To Tell Us What
You Think About The Current Status Quo
And How You Expect It To Evolve As We
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