Qatar becomes earliest host to exit FIFA world cup in 92 years: How other home countries have performed

We look at how host nations have performed in FIFA World Cups and whether being hosts provides an advantage or a disadvantage in the tournament.When the Netherlands played out a tepid draw against Ecuador, Qatar’s fate in their home World Cup was sealed. They became only the second host nation to be eliminated in the group stages of the FIFA World Cup, lasting merely five days, with a mathematical chance to qualify from their group.While the hosts were not expected to set the stage alight in this tournament, their rapid exit still surprised many. After all, Qatar has spent the last 12 years preparing for this tournament, extensively scouting for the best players and spending millions on development.As Qatar became the earliest host nation to exit the tournament in its 92-year history, we look at how host nations have performed in FIFA World Cups and whether being hosts provides an advantage or a disadvantage in the tournament.Not counting Qatar 2022, there have been 21 FIFA World Cups so far, with 22 hosts (Japan and Korea co-hosted the 2002 World Cup). Out of these 22 hosts, 21 have made it beyond the first round of their respective tournament. The solitary exception was South Africa in 2010. They got very unlucky, being slotted into a Group with Uruguay, Mexico and France. They came a respectable third in the group, breaking French hearts with a 2-1 victory in the final group game. Out of the 21 hosts who made it through, six would go on to win the tournament, with anothertwo making the finals. This means that historically, hosts have made it to the final game of the tournament a staggering 38 per cent of times, winning the tournament nearly 29 per cent of the time. Just for perspective, this year, at the beginning of the World Cup, Brazil was by far the favourite with bookmakers, having 41/10 odds. This translates to slightly under 20 per cent chance to win the tournament.However, these numbers alone do not provide the full picture. After all, World Cups have mostly happened in countries which already have decent football teams, and it makes logical sense for better football teams to perform better at the big stage.

The better question to ask is, “have host nations overperformed/underperformed expectations in the World Cup?” That is slightly harder to gauge for two reasons. First, FIFA rankings only began at the end of 1992. To make an assessment of any team previously, one will have to rely on more subjective appraisals. Second, the process for arriving at FIFA rankings is far from perfect. In the World Cups since the rankings were introduced, the first ranked team has never won the World Cup.The history of the past 21 World Cups suggests that being hosts definitely has its pros. Home crowds buoy the team and provide that extra little juice that can often get the team through the group stages.

Further, hosts also prepare extra hard for their home tournament: after all, playing in front of your own fans is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and each nation tries to put its best foot forward. But at the end of the day, quality matters, especially in modern football where the vagaries of travelling long distances and staying in foreign lands have been fairly mitigated.

Being hosts can also add a level of pressure which can lead to freak results. Case being the two matches that Brazil lost (1950 and 2014). Qatar might have succumbed to that pressure themselves. Under coach Felix Sanchez, a graduate of Barcelona’s famed La Masia academy, they played a very progressive style of football, focussing on ball possession and high pressing. In the run-up to the tournament, they performed admirably, winning the AFC Asian Cup in 2019 against some strong Asian competition. However, things just fell apart from them in this World Cup, earning them the dubious distinction of the worst-performing team to ever host the tournament.