In gambling, you don't just have to have a good card in your hand, you also have to hit the dice. Even if there is a good card, it is a hoax. Politics and war also need hypocrisy. In the global tensions created over Ukraine, the role of hypocrisy was no less than that of real events.
There was a lot of speculation, a lot of speculation, between Biden and Putin. The "Russian aggression" in Ukraine has been the subject of much speculation in the Western media. President Biden also bet that this is going to happen in February. The matter became like the story of Nasiruddin Hajji. The enmity of a rich emir with Hajji. Hajji told a lie in a hat bar to throw Amir into disarray, there would be a feast at Amir's house on such and such a day. Let no one miss that meal. The news spread as usual. On a certain day, Hajji saw people walking towards the emir's house in groups. Seeing all this, he thought, when so many people are going, it seems that there is really a feast today. It would not be right to miss. With this thought, Hajji also sat down, believing his own lies.
That's where the United States has its problems with Ukraine. The threat of Russian aggression in Ukraine has been identified as real by the US State Department and its influential media. To add to that reality, military equipment began to be sent to Ukraine. At one point, Biden said he was convinced of Russian aggression in Ukraine. After believing in his own words, he went down to his friends. He looked down and saw a pencil in his hand. In other words, no other leader of the state except the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson is willing to say 'Joe Hokum Jahanpana'. This has been the case since the Iraq war. The British prime ministers prefer to consider US foreign policy as their own policy. Johnson needs a fight. He has fallen into disarray due to internal political scandals. What a war to escape from this evil!
But neither France nor Germany is unconditionally willing to be an "ally" led by the United States. Instead, French President Emmanuel Macho and Germany's new chancellor Olaf Schultz will travel to Moscow for talks with the "dictator" Putin. That is, they are interested in a diplomatic solution. Like Biden, they have no confidence in the saying, "Ukraine is for boys". Because, national interest. After the Second World War, there was no more war on European soil, there was such an agreement among the Europeans. That a reason, but the immediate real reason is another. French election ahead. Before the election, Macron wants to solve the riddle of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and make himself a pacifist leader in Europe. It should be noted that Macron criticized the NATO alliance in 2019 as 'brain-dead'. Soon after, he invited Vladimir Putin to Paris.
At the end of his meeting with Putin, he unveiled a new theory of European security. He spoke of the need for a new security architecture between the European Union and Russia. Why the need for this 'new architecture' when NATO is there? This means that there is no need for NATO to have the same security zone around Russia as it had around the former Soviet Union. Instead, Russia needs to be partnered with a new security structure. So even if Biden starts the so-called Ukraine war, it will be difficult to pull France there. Despite Biden's annoyance, Macron and Putin spoke on the phone for an hour two days ago.
Germany's problem is not Russia. Russia is the solution. Without Russian gas, Germany would freeze this winter. Russia accounts for 40 percent of Europe's gas demand. Russia will certainly suffer from the US blockade. But Europe will not be left out. The post-covid economic recovery will come to a halt. Factory power, starting from home heaters, will be turned off. Despite being a member of NATO, Germany did not agree to send military aid to Ukraine. NATO member Estonia has even banned the export of German-made Hawser weapons to Ukraine.
The gas that comes to Germany from Russia produces 80 percent of the country's exports. The Nor Stream 2 pipeline has been built directly between Russia and Germany to ensure this fuel supply. Although the pipeline is not yet operational due to legal complications, it is like a new blood vessel for the German economy. Germany's inactivity in the NATO alliance against Russia means that European NATO is crippled.
So before the impending Russian invasion, Biden did not have much of a trump card. Ukraine itself is now worried about NATO. The country's president has called on warlords to "calm down" to the tune of the Pentagon.
Russian President Putin has been called a geopolitical gambler. Putin has drawn Georgia, Belarus, Syria and Kazakhstan into Russian geopolitical interests. He wants the same in Ukraine. There are two main reasons for his notoriety: his geopolitical dice skills and his ability to get ahead of the times. At the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics, when the US camps themselves were divided, he told Chinese President Xi Jinping that China would not sit still if Russia attacked. It is clear that Russia and China are forming an alliance with the mantra that NATO member France or Germany is reluctant to accept. Article 5, a fundamental part of the NATO treaty, states that if a NATO member state is attacked, the other member states will resist at once. If Russia is attacked, China will remain, Iran-Turkey will also choose. Needless to say, this is not about building NATO, it is about building Eurasia.
More cards are coming out of Putin's hand. Macron wants to be the hero of peace between Moscow and Kiev. But Turkish President Erdoğan has already arrived in the Ukrainian capital, Kiev. As a leader of a NATO country, he is selling to Ukraine the test-winning Bayraktar drones of the Armenian war, on the one hand, and Russia's regional security partners on the other. The no-nonsense leader of the Ottoman Empire is also involved in Putin's Eurasia connectivity project, in China's Bell and Road, and in NATO. Even then, Russia-US played out against Armenia in Azerbaijan. He is establishing himself as an urgent mediator to all parties. He wants NATO to stay close to the Russian border, while maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty.
Putin agrees. Thus, the balance of power is tilted towards Putin.
The West has cheated Russia. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the West promised that NATO would not expand in Eastern Europe. That was not kept. After the Russia-Ukraine crisis of 2014-15, the Minsk agreement was accepted by all parties, including Ukraine. But Ukraine has called on NATO to violate the agreement and threaten Russia's sovereignty. Third, why would Russia accept the US-backed color revolution in various countries near the Russian border, including Belarus and Kazakhstan? No major state will allow its neighbor to move to the opposition camp. On the other hand, the security guarantees that Russia seeks from NATO and the West are not unfair. But the sovereignty of the small state must also be respected. Why do they have to write names in the military alliance? Either you are American, or you are Chinese or pro-Russian; It can't be. There may be a non-aligned position, all-party communication can continue.
Again, even a small state should not become a puppet in the hands of regional or international superpowers and bring about its own defeat. Ukraine should not be a threat to Russia, nor should Russia accept Ukraine's sovereignty. But what if you do not accept? Although the United States has made Ukraine a battleground for NATO, Russia has no choice but to retaliate by attacking Ukraine. Recognition of the two Russian-speaking territories demanding independence from Ukraine. Russia would then be able to retaliate if Ukraine carried a NATO cannon in its name in the name of rescuing its territory. Putin can say that we are for independence, NATO is more aggressive. In Europe, meanwhile, Erdoğan and Macron are becoming the leader of regional powers in Europe and Eurasia. Putin is not wrong in choosing friends. And the world has seen that the fruits of democracy exports are usually boomeranged.
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