How Petraeus: Ukraine Invasion ‘Pouring Gasoline On Burning Embers’ Of Russian Unrest

What happened between Russia and Ukraine: Russia-Ukraine WarJoining me now is a man who literally wrote the book on counter-insurgencies and led fight against insurgent forces as general the way he was also head of the  may have at least some thoughts on what's going on in that mind of  although  don't know if anybody wants to crawl inside that brain uh general Petraeus let me start with what you expect now so this is right now it's still army versus army here how do you expect this insurgency  sort of take hold right now is still organized units and by the way  have not collapsed the Ukrainian command and control uh they haven't taken even remotely a major city they are as my great friend and battlefield comrade general  noted off their timeline this has to be unsettling to  they could not retain control of that airfield uh 20 kilometers northwest of  they had to plow more forces into it today they can bring fixed-wing aircraft in with a lot more assets uh to follow up they are encountering more significant resistance and more determination than think they inspect expected and by the way this was always the question a lot of us had   lead his country or will he do what  pack up and leave we've got answers to that they will fight and by the way it appears that the citizenry is determined to fight as well you know it's forgotten but when we invaded  was a two-star general at that time division commander we were applauded um we were an army of liberation  a period of time uh which only has a half-life of course  then you become an  they are already an army of occupation in fact chuck  it occurs to me you know who the  are here it's  the way the Ukrainians will regard them the way that occupied countries regarded with almost the entire population united against them all males expected to take up arms and so forth you know a lot of us again even before the invasion started said you know 190 000 troops if it is that many and  don't think it quite is sounds like a lot but when you strip out  elements that are not just good old infantrymen and boots it's a lot less and counter insurgency is very manpower intensive they don't have anywhere near the troops  think they will have a very tough time they'll defeat the Ukrainian uh conventional forces that's again not in question it's how long it takes how determined can they be as they are taking very tough losses you know they lost more on day one  the worst month of  losses during the height  surge in  which is the bloodiest period of our time there again they're really fighting and even when that actually in a sense collapses or becomes as we say in the airborne little groups of paratroopers who fight on uh they have to face citizenry there's going to also be enormous destruction they will get shots from a building they'll level the building in which will engender more hatred and more resistance so  think they're in for a very tough time they don't have anywhere near the forces that they need to control the whole country much less even  plus everything say east of  all along the southern coastline which is what it appears their initial objectives are at least for the course this central object to replace you right if they do that the whole goal is for i it's no doubt he thought that  government would collapse quickly none of that has happened he has got to be more he's going  more fingerprints on this than he perhaps thought if he attempts to sort of  strategy right and sort of stops at  because he just doesn't have the manpower to occupy everything  assume that makes it easier for a power like us  this insurgency because there will be essentially western Ukraine will be the capital of this resistance will it not yes in fact the key question on this front you may have seen an interview  did in the  uh the other day is will the Ukrainians retain a substantial portion of their country from which they could mount this kind of insurgency because obviously if they lose the entire country then you're providing support from  nations that's going to be challenging uh that would be difficult for some of them to accept maybe you can do stuff in a covert realm but anything that is overt such as we have done already you may have seen the  secretary general reportedly is going to offer additional air defense assets uh to Ukraine which is put to good use the stingers that we gave them  think as you showed earlier  bringing down of a Russian aircraft they've apparently brought down quite a few they've used the man portable anti-tank systems to good effect as well uh put on your  hat and let me ask you this how did we have five straight presidents and m gonna go back to  who all thought you could rationally deal  maybe we should exhaust 23 years of this with him it feels as if a lot of presidents went down this road thinking Putin's  kind of will be a rational actor at some point he seems to always prove those presidents wrong and has he done it again well  think you know we are by nature an optimistic people uh hope sometimes triumphs over reality until it collides with reality and that's what we have had here gosh  remember in fact it was vice president had the reset button now talking about achieving a reset uh of the relationship with Russia obviously was doomed um so but again there is always  know we can always prevail uh in optimism of a force multiplier and those kinds of sayings so yeah  think all of that is gone uh  think actually the administration did a very impressive job of you might call it laundering a combination of open source information intelligence and classified intelligence and releasing it to the public well in advance of  taking actions that they that have now been proven correct without exposing sources and methods so again think that's all been stripped away uh the blooms off that rose or whatever uh admiral uh  my podcast said something he says this might not end until either the hand of god or  about who's around him and who gets around him what's your sense of the people around him well you may recall that  then came not long after he made a long speech we've heard the long speech that said look  mean this would be very risky business um this is a  like those who tried to conspire against  you know if you don't succeed uh the penalties for not succeeding are pretty extreme they've all been elevated to their position and as oligarchs and billionaires by him uh they have depended on him of course  is in the ultimate bubble  mean we saw that bizarre surreal  setting in which he gave that somewhat crazed speech uh and no one was going to stand up against mean his intelligence chief was stammering um no one really can again even call slightly into question uh in contrast frankly uh to what a lot of us sought to do uh in various positions over the years mean  used to say preserve and protect the iconoclasts may not want to put them in command but  want them challenging me  want them want to hear their info you know don't shut that guy out so again think um we have  accept all of this all of this reality it is possible that there could be so much pain uh that some of those around him might try to figure out a way to usher him into retirement but  think probably more likely chuck is just the unrest on the street despite the way the demonstrators were treated right uh banged up bastion into vehicles given a criminal record and the rest of that there is unrest in  uh and this has amplified that very substantially this is pouring gasoline on burning embers uh and that's what would expect to see cause him some uh concern because keep in mind one of the uh ambitions that he had here  to get his popularity ratings back up again and uh not terrific  again in the past after 2014 uh he was able do just that so i think that's got to be unsettling to him and maybe at some point also he actually is willing to sit down certainly not  but maybe in just saw your dog come in  think uh he's about to get your attention and 'm about to lose yours general yes it is maybe 'll see you out there general really appreciate you coming out and sharing your expertise.