How US Intelligence Agencies Know about North Korea’s Future to forward nuclear test
Although North Korea has not conducted any nuclear tests since 2017, the US observation of activities such as North Korea's Yongbyon is inconsistent with total denuclearization, according to a report released by the US defense intelligence agency. As a result, North Korea is expected to conduct future nuclear tests and possibly resume long-range ballistic missile tests.
National defense intelligence agency published a report
On 15 October, the national defense intelligence agency published a report on its website entitled "North Korea's military strength - a growing regional and global threat." Lt. S. Scott Beryl, director of defense intelligence, said the agency's director of defense intelligence, Lt. Gen. "North Korea is one of the most militarized countries in the world and remains a major security challenge for the United States, our Northeast Asian allies, and the international community," Scott Berrier said in the foreword to the unclassified intelligence report. ”
Review of North Korea and its core military capabilities
"This report is a baseline review of North Korea and its core military capabilities to help us better understand the current threat posed by Pyongyang to the United States and its allies," he said. ” the report says North Korea’s military poses two direct and overlapping challenges to the US and its allies: a conventional force of artillery and infantry that can attack South Korea with little warning, and a ballistic missile arsenal designed to be equipped with nuclear weapons with a range that can reach bases and cities in South Korea and Japan, as well as the US mainland.
The report notes that while conventional threats to South Korea have been slow to develop over the past few decades, the rapid development and testing of North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs between 2012 and 2017 has brought the second possibility closer to reality than most international observers had expected. These capabilities increase the risk of military flashpoints in northeast Asia, escalating rapidly beyond the Korean peninsula and possibly across the pacific into the US mainland.
North Korea’s national security strategy
According to the report, North Korea’s national security strategy has two main objectives: to ensure the long-term security of the Kim regime, which the leadership defines as a sovereign, independent state still ruled by the Kim family, and the ability to maintain dominant influence over the Korean peninsula.
Kim Jong
The report notes that Kim Jong-un has set the North Korean military on a path to expand its multi-disciplinary capabilities over the next few years, with 20-30 percent of the economy devoted to developing military forces and the military industry. Kim Jong-un prioritizes the result and display of weapons, providing North Korea with the means to strike distant adversaries with nuclear weapons, including the United States, enhancing the spa's ability to hit critical South Korean targets that are increasingly far from the demilitarized zone, and further strengthening North Korea’s ability to withstand external attacks or invasions.
Target
The report says the targets reflect an overall security strategy focused on deterrence and coercion. Kim Jong-un seems to have judged that if he demonstrates a viable nuclear weapon capable of being carried by a reliable long-range ballistic missile, he could prevent the United States from taking action against North Korea. In addition, if deterrence fails, Kim Jong-un will continue to strengthen his conventional military offensive capabilities to increase the cost of conflict and expand the options for threatening South Korean and local US forces. Even without weapons of mass destruction, these conventional weapons still pose a continuing threat to the armies of South Korea, Japan, and the United States in the region.
North Korea conducted several missiles and nuclear tests between 2016 and 2017
The report says North Korea conducted several missiles and nuclear tests between 2016 and 2017 but sought diplomatic contacts in 2018 and early 2019 and declared its support for the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. North Korea has not conducted any nuclear tests since 2017 and has reversible dismantled part of its weapons of mass destruction infrastructure. However, the United States continues to observe that activities in Yongbyon and elsewhere are incompatible with complete denuclearization. North Korea began flight tests of new solid-rocket ballistic and submarine-launched ballistic missiles in mid-2019.
The report envisions the possibility of developing and advancing all military areas of land-based ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, nuclear weapons, long-range artillery, special operations forces, uncrewed aerial vehicles, cyberspace capabilities, etc. unless North Korea agrees and insists on complete denuclearization, including the dismantling of delivery systems.
The defense intelligence agency is a combat support agency of the department of defense that provides timely, objective, and robust military intelligence to defense planners and national defense and national security policymakers. The defense intelligence agency has previously published reports on the military strength of other countries, including the "China military power report 2019," the "Iran military power report 2019," and the "Russian military power report 2017."
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