UBS shifts EUR/NOK forecast timeline, maintains bearish outlook

Investing.com - UBS has adjusted its quarter-end forecasts for the EUR/NOK currency pair, shifting its targets out by one quarter while maintaining a bearish outlook for the euro against the Norwegian krone.

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The investment bank now forecasts EUR/NOK at 11.30, 11.20, and 11.10 through the second quarter of 2026, while adding a new target of 11.0 for September 2026, according to a report released Monday.

UBS noted that the currency pair has consolidated over the summer months but expects it to resume its downtrend as Norway’s economic growth outperforms its peers and a broader European economic recovery materializes.

The bank cited supportive financial conditions and the Norwegian krone’s "decent carry" as additional factors that should contribute to the currency’s strength against the euro in the coming quarters.

At current levels, UBS recommends investors take a short position in EUR/NOK or alternatively sell upside in the pairing for longer-term investments, projecting that the downtrend in EUR/NOK will resume in the second half of 2025 and continue into 2026.