Achieving the US government’s decarbonization goals of 100% carbon-free electricity generation by 2035 and net-zero economy-wide carbon emissions by 2050 will require the deployment of record levels of renewable technologies. The most common solar technologies deployed to date are crystalline silicon and cadmium. The costs of which have dropped markedly in recent years. The US Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office said in order to meet 2035 targets, solar deployment has to double in the next three years, and ultimately ramp up to 100 GW by 2035.
While most development will use silicon and sees potential in nascent technologies like
Finds that the power conversion efficiencies (PCE) of (over 25% in single-junction cells and over 29% in tandem cells with silicon) show promise. One advantage of is that they can be easily manufactured in high volume. However, significant technological challenges must be addressed before are ready for commercial power sector markets.
In a recent Energy Focus report, covers the critical technical barriers, the commercialization pitfalls and opportunities, and efforts to overcome barriers and challenges to commercialization. It also references funded projects, which can be viewed in the Solar Energy Research Database.
One of the major barriers is cost. In order for to be commercially competitive, its cost of electricity must be competitive with that of other technologies. And with the cost of silicon and modules dropping while warranty times are increasing, it will be a steep challenge for to compete on a basis.
“As researchers continue to develop, there are lessons to be learned from the fates of other photovoltaic technologies. Focused on helping photovoltaic companies to avoid those pitfalls and spurring innovation in order to get this technology market-ready and accelerate the deployment of solar energy,” said Dr. Lenny Tinker, photovoltaics program manager, Solar Energy Technologies Office, US Department of Energy.
Module and cell durability
Durability is the largest technological risk for PV. For metrics to approach 2030 goals of $0.02 kWh, PV will have to last at least 20 years in the field, which will require improving its ability to withstand various environmental conditions. Much testing is required, yet today’s tests are geared toward commercialized PV technologies and are unlikely to capture all the failure modes relevant to modules in the field.
Existing tests may also be excessive or promote irrelevant or uncharacteristic modes of device failure. Some minimum durability performance targets which, if realized, would provide strong evidence that a prototype PV device is ready to enter an initial production stage. To this end, funds considerable durability work as well as development of test standards.
Efficiency, often considered a strength of PV, requires significant improvement for large-area devices before they are ready for the commercial arena. While standardized cell and module form factors have yet to be finalized for PV, standards will be a crucial prerequisite to scaling the entire industry beyond initial demonstration projects.
The final major technical hurdle to commercialization is achieving high production yield, with narrow distributions in module efficiencies. Barriers related to process control and manufacturing yield are often underappreciated, and solar cells have not yet demonstrated broad process flexibility in the lab. Cost-effective deposition processes will need to tolerate small variations in factors such as deposition tooling conditions, deposition environment, and ink compositions.
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