With over 100,000 troops stationed around the country, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be preparing an invasion of Ukraine. The United States certainly believes this, and President Joe Biden has warned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that an attack might occur in February.
Russia, on the other hand, claims that it is planning an invasion, and Putin's goals remain a mystery.
A look at some of them:
SOMETHING SHORT OF A FULL-SCALE INVASION
Russia, which is seeking a guarantee that NATO would not expand to encompass Ukraine, has choices other than a full-fledged invasion, as well as other measures to retaliate against the US and its allies. All of them pose a threat to Russia and the rest of the globe in varied degrees.Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014. In the same year, it began equipping separatists in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, igniting a simmering conflict that has claimed the lives of over 14,000 people. Many Russia observers believe that Russia's current troop and naval increase is part of a bigger campaign to chip away at Ukraine, maybe taking advantage of the United States' and its European allies' distractions over COVID-19 and other matters. Providing extra help to the Russia-backed rebels or launching a limited invasion, just enough to destabilise Zelenskyy and install a pro-Kremlin leader, are both possibilities.
Stopping short of a full-scale invasion would give Russia more time to build up its forces and test the US and its allies' commitment to the harsh sanctions promised by Biden, according to retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of US Army operations in Europe. "He's going to keep doing what he's doing right now," Hodges added, "applying maximum pressure on Ukraine and attempting to destabilise the government in order to frighten people." "If the chance arises, there is a lot of potential in place to do more."
This might potentially lead to penalties, which would harm the Russian economy and punish Putin at home. According to Dmitry Gorenburg, an expert at CNA, a research firm in Arlington, Virginia, a limited response may not be enough to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin's goal of compromising European security by rolling back, or at the very least pausing, NATO growth. He said, "I don't think it gets him what he wants." "It never got them that way before." "Why now?" you might wonder.
WAR ON THE ECONOMIC FRONT
Russia is a prominent player in the global energy market, as the world's third-largest oil producer behind the United States and Saudi Arabia, and the source of around 40% of Europe's natural gas. It is also a major wheat exporter, especially to poorer countries. With gas and oil prices already high, any action to reduce the flow of energy might be painful for Europe in the winter. Similarly, rising food prices are a worldwide issue.
According to Edward Fishman, a former State Department official who is now a senior member at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, Putin has some economic leverage, but there's no sign he'll use it, and it could end up hurting Russia in the long run. Any action by Russia to halt gas shipments would force European countries to seek alternative energy sources in the future. "It's a one-time use weapon," he explained. "You lose that leverage forever if you do that once." If Russian gas is needed, the Biden administration is already working with Qatar and other suppliers.
CYBERATTACKS
There's little doubt that Russia has the power to carry out large cyberattacks in Ukraine and around the world, and that it would almost likely do so again if it were involved in a conflict with its neighbour. On Jan. 23, the Department of Homeland Security warned law enforcement agencies that if Russia believed the response to the invasion of Ukraine "threatened its long-term national security," it would consider launching a cyberattack on the US, including possible actions against critical infrastructure.
Russia is suspected of being behind a 2015 cyberattack on Ukraine's power grid. Hackers in Ukraine momentarily took down official websites earlier this month, emphasising the importance of cybersecurity in the confrontation with Russia. "Whatever the extent, scope, and nature of their ground and air attacks are," Hodges says, "cyber will be a huge component of whatever they do."
The danger to the rest of the globe is that hostile conduct against Ukraine spreads, as the cyberattack known as notPetya did in 2017. The United States and other countries have the ability to retaliate, as Biden warned Putin in June. "He understands the ramifications," Biden remarked.
THE FACTOR CHINA
China isn't a direct participant in the Ukraine dispute, but it does have an impact. Observers have cautioned that if Washington rejects Moscow's security needs, Moscow may strengthen military ties with China. Over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea, Russia and China have conducted a series of joint war games, involving naval drills and patrols by long-range aircraft.
As President Xi Jinping preside over the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, US officials have stated that they do not believe Russia will launch an invasion. "If the Olympics are disrupted by fighting, the Chinese will be furious," Gorenburg added. Putin intends to come to Beijing for the opening ceremony, while US and European leaders will abstain in protest of human rights violations.
One notion among Russia watchers is that China is closely monitoring the United States' and European Union's responses to Ukraine in order to predict what would happen if it moves against Taiwan. That, according to Hodges, is a risk. "I don't think President Xi will be impressed with anything we say about Taiwan or the South China Sea if we can't stop the president of the Russian Federation from doing something that is so blatantly illegal, wrong, and hostile with our combined diplomatic, economic, and military force."
IN LATIN AMERICA, A RUSSIAN BUILDUP
Russian officials have warned that troops or military assets might be sent to Cuba and Venezuela. Though Russia has significant relations to both countries, as well as Nicaragua, the warnings are unclear. The plan was rebuffed by US national security adviser Jake Sullivan, and experts in the region and around the world saw it as a policy that would accomplish little more than distract Russian forces needed elsewhere, and hence is unlikely to be implemented.
A more plausible scenario is that Russia intensifies its already vast propaganda and disinformation efforts in Latin America and abroad, including the United States, to exacerbate tensions.
AN EXAMPLE OF A DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION
It's hardly a certain that the standoff will result in an invasion. While the Biden administration has stated that it will not give in to Russia's security demands, diplomacy appears to be an option. The US response, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, "gives optimism for the start of a real debate on secondary concerns."
In an effort to revive a 2015 agreement to calm the war in eastern Ukraine, France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia have agreed to meet in two weeks for discussions. Some believe that this will make it more difficult for the US and NATO to present a united front against Russia.
In a New York Times piece published on Friday, Russian writer Yulia Latynina warned that a stand-down could benefit the world but come at a cost to Putin. She speculated that Putin may have used his troop buildup as a bluff to force the US and Europe to abandon any plans for deeper ties with Ukraine. "Instead of encircling the US, Mr. Putin has encircled himself," she wrote. "Caught between violent war and a humiliating retreat, he is now seeing his manoeuvring room dwindle to nil."
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