How safe is the world from the threat of nuclear weapons? This question has been raised since Russia's aggression in Ukraine. Now at least it's clear that whatever the outcome of the long war, the problems caused by the ongoing war will not go away easily. They deactivated in 1994 the nuclear weapons that Ukraine "inherited" as part of the Soviet Union. In return for the surrender, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia assured Ukraine of its sovereignty and defense.
But those assurances have become useless today. As Ukraine is not a member of NATO, they have not found a place in the shadow of the growing resistance of the US nuclear umbrella. Now the question is, what is the status of the former Soviet republics that joined NATO? Will the increased US defense really protect Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, or allies in Asia?
The current Russia-Ukraine crisis has created a situation that has multiplied the risk of using nuclear weapons. If he cannot get out of this situation, the whole world will have to pay his compensation.
For nuclear deterrence to be credible, nuclear weapons must be usable. But if it is too usable, it could easily lead to an accident or a misguided catastrophic nuclear war. In order to maintain an effective balance between powerful nations, we must consider ensuring the proper mixing of nuclear and other conventional tools. Then, whenever possible, the nuclear material must be reduced.
For example, no matter what steps are taken in response to North Korea's growing stockpile of nuclear weapons, there is no way to restore the strategic nuclear weapons that US President George HW Bush removed from the Korean Peninsula in 1991. This means that once a strategic nuclear weapon has been removed, it cannot be re-established.
The same is true of Japan. There, the position of American troops could be sanctioned to protect the credibility of the US enhanced defense system. But under no circumstances is the presence of nuclear weapons justified. There is a similar fear among the US troops stationed in Japan that Japanese troops feel insecure. The feeling of facing the same weakness is shared by both sides, which reduces the risk of the allies leaving each other.
At one time, skeptics thought that a small contingent of US troops stationed in Berlin might not be able to protect the city from Soviet invasion. But the physical presence of American forces proved to be essential for the prevention of aggression and the peaceful outcome of the Cold War. (There was a time when the United States had nuclear weapons in Europe; but they were later removed due to the risk of losing command and control.)
Today, the United States and other nations continue to modernize their respective armies. At the same time, the debate over the usability of these forces continues. Powerful nations are constantly stockpiling nuclear weapons. But there is no global control over how these weapons could be used in the future. Russia's aggression in Ukraine reminds us that we are still living in a dangerous world with nuclear weapons.
We are not sure how safe this weapon is. That is why, in the long run, we should try to reduce (though not completely eliminate) these reserves now.
Psychological issues can also have a long-term effect on preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Theologian Paul Ramsay once compared the use of nuclear weapons to the prevention of nuclear weapons by tying children to the bumper of a car as a way to slow down and reduce the risk of death in a road accident. He says those who stockpile nuclear weapons must be bound by a chain that will force them to exercise restraint in the interests of their own security.
New information technology is gradually taking the nuclear weapons control system to a more fragile state. Problems with the advent of cyberattacks on command and control systems, laser attacks on satellites, and automatic weapons systems are taking on new dimensions.
There must be a change in the politics of nuclear weapons control. During the Cold War, ideological rivals created a regime of clear rules. Everyone at the time acknowledged that they had a vested interest in avoiding nuclear war.
The current Russia-Ukraine crisis has created a situation that has multiplied the risk of using nuclear weapons. If he cannot get out of this situation, the whole world will have to pay his compensation.
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