How Population Bomb Kills?

The number of young people replacing the elderly is decreasing: According to the World Bank report the fertility rate, total (births per woman) which were 5 in 1960 have come down to around 2.4 against the ideal replacement fertility rate of 2.1. In the Arab world it is 3.4, Central Europe and the Baltics 1.4, East Asia and Pacific 1.8, EU 1.5, Latin America 2.1, South Asia 2.6, Least developed countries 4.2 (UN classification), Sub-Saharan Africa 5, Heavily indebted poor countries 5, High Income 1.7, Low and middle income 2.6. As regards the USA it is 1.82, China 1.61, and India 2.4. Accordingly, the average population growth rate of the world went down from 2.1 in 1960 to 1.1 at present, and for the USA from 1.7 in 1960 to 0.7% at present, China from 1.8 to 0.59%, and India from 1.9 to 1.1%. (World Bank) This all indicates that the number of young people replacing the elderly is decreasing with the passage of time. Hence, the major drawback to the presently developed economies like USA, Canada, and Germany would be hugely reduced population growth rate that will make them old aged people’s economies putting the burden on the young working force to take care of the old people. However, robots and immigrants could be coming to rescue these economies to some extent. Migration trends from poor countries towards the rich: According to a Gallup survey, around 14 percent of the world’s youth (700 million people) would like to move to rich countries for economic reasons. This figure is quite high 31 percent for Sub Sahara countries. Whereas, rich countries wouldn’t be able to absorb such a significant number. Anti-immigrant sentiments are already quite high in countries like America, UK, Italy, and Spain. Comparatively open door policy for immigrants as exercised by Canada, Australia and Germany seem to be ending very soon. The reason would be the expected downturn of their economies in the years ahead and resultant unemployment or under-employment of the locals. Reversion of illegal immigrants has already started in America. In the future, it appears that the number of green cards issued will also come down and will mostly be issued on the basis of applicants’ skills. Whereas presently out of the total green cards issued just 15% are skill based. In the USA presently 13 percent people are foreign-born, in Canada 22%, and in Australia 28%. These figures are three times higher than what they were in 1970. This ever increasing trend seems to be stopping now. Likewise, there doesn’t look any scope of further absorption of immigrants in UAE and Saudi Arabia due to the stagnant economies. On the other hand economic surge is taking place in East and South East Asia particularly China, India, and ASEAN, and they are self-sufficient in the young working force. 2 China has moved onto two child policy from the one child of the past to deal with its aging population challenge and decreasing the working age population. India appears to perform better on this count in future as it will not face any shortage of cheap young working force both skilled and unskilled due to its better population growth rate continuing at least in the coming two decades. Under the circumstances, developed economies of the West now either have to increase their population which is unlikely due to social constraints/norms or they have to rely on immigrants for which they are not that much willing at the moment. We have witnessed the ‘anti-immigrant’ sentiments during Brexit voting and winning of election by president Trump. That aspect is going to help the Asian economies to grow both being house of substantial working force and themselves as important consumer markets in the years to come. The Demographic Challenges for the Chinese Economy viz a viz USA: One child policy adopted by China in the past has resulted in the aging of its populace and shrinkage of the workforce. China’s present population is 1.4billion which is around 19% of the world. At the moment it is increasing @ 0.59%, whereas it was growing @ 1.87% in 1990. If the things went on like this, its population will stop growing by the year 2030 at 1.4 billion and will start decreasing afterward. By the year 2050, it will be 1.34 billion. At that time it will be 14.26% of the world against the present 19%.