Explainer: Pakistan T20 World Cup Semi-Final Qualifying Scenarios
Pakistan needs to win all their remaining matches to set the right net rate to qualify for the semi-finals Zimbabwe's surprise win over Pakistan in the ICC T20 World Cup 2022 on Thursday made Group 2 interesting for all teams, but Pakistan's chances of advancing in the tournament are now up in the air.
After two matches, Pakistan is in the fifth position as they have lost to India and Zimbabwe. On the other hand, India, South Africa, Bangladesh, and Zimbabwe are ahead of Pakistan.
India has four points from two matches, while both South Africa and Zimbabwe have three points from two matches. Bangladesh is good for two points.
Pakistan's next match in the tournament is against the Netherlands. They then play in South Africa and Bangladesh. All three of these games are must-win for Pakistan now. If Pakistan loses one more match, they will not make it to the semi-finals. But just winning three matches in a row for Babar Azam's team will not be enough. They will also need help from other groups.
Now, Pakistan's best-case scenario is that Bangladesh beat Zimbabwe, India beat South Africa and Pakistan beat the Netherlands on Sunday. India will top the table with six points, followed by Bangladesh with four, Zimbabwe with three, and Pakistan with two points. Firstly, Pakistan needs to win all the remaining three matches.
Second, the men in green need to win all three matches by a wide margin to maintain a healthy clean sheet. Third, they have to hope other results go their way - including South Africa's losses to India and Pakistan. Zimbabwe lost the remaining two matches out of three (against India, Netherlands, and Bangladesh). Next, they have to hope that Bangladesh loses the next match.
Then on November 2, Pakistan will need the Netherlands to beat Zimbabwe and India to beat Bangladesh. On November 3, Pakistan will have to beat South Africa in Sydney. In this case, India will have 8 points, Pakistan and Bangladesh 4 points each, and South Africa and Zimbabwe 3 points each. On November 6, all teams in the group will compete. Pakistan should beat Bangladesh and hope India beat Zimbabwe and South Africa beat the Netherlands.
If wishes were horses and everything went in Pakistan's equation, India would be on top with 10 points, followed by Pakistan with 6 points and South Africa with 5 points. But Pakistan will be in trouble if South Africa beat India on Sunday. If South Africa beat India, SA will have five points and India will have four. South Africa will face the Netherlands and will probably win. India will face Zimbabwe and Bangladesh and are likely to win both matches.
So if South Africa beat India, Pakistan will have to hope the Netherlands beat South Africa and Zimbabwe beat India to improve their NRR. The situation in Pakistan is likely to become clearer on Sunday evening. So let's keep Pakistan's hopes alive and hope India keeps winning and beating South Africa easily.
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