One month has passed since Russian President Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine. There are actually two wars going on there. One is Russia's war against Ukrainian cities and civilians, and the other is Russia's war against Ukraine's armed forces. Russia is winning the first battle. Ukraine is winning the last battle.
Ideally, a fair negotiation would lead to a ceasefire at some point and lead to a lasting settlement. But if Putin thinks he will make a policy decision to fight in the long run to reduce the weakness of his forces and reject all conditions in Ukraine, then the path to hope is closed. If this situation is created, who will actually win this war? Who will be defeated?The easiest way to point to the biggest loser is Russia. It is now clear that Putin wanted to achieve his political goals through this war.Now it will not be possible. Putin thought he would enter Ukraine with an army and effortlessly oust President Zelensky and set up a puppet government loyal to the Kremlin.
Putin's war of choice may have destroyed much of Ukraine's infrastructure, but his decision has led to unprecedented sanctions on Russia. Has left Russia in economic isolation. It is destroying Russia economically in the long run. Russia's army has been destroyed (Russia loses about 15,000 troops a month) and is being pushed to a state that will take years to rebuild.In the case of Ukraine, the calculation is more complicated. The solidarity shown by the country's leadership, society and the armed forces in this war is astonishing. The Russian attack has strengthened the national identity of the people there. Ukraine's strong resistance has strengthened the country's fledgling democracy. However, about a quarter of the country's people have been internally displaced or displaced. The economy has collapsed.
Infrastructure that has already been destroyed will take a lot of time and money to rebuild. The other one who has won this battle is NATO. As a result of the Russian aggression, it has become more united and stronger. It has also benefited from the poor performance of the Russian armed forces. In this fight, it seems, the Russian forces have no power at all to deal with the Western alliance.The war is undermining global efforts to slow the spread of nuclear weapons. Ukraine received its territorial integrity 26 years ago from the United Nations and Russia. In return for that assurance, the country gave up its stockpile of nuclear weapons. But since 2014, they have been attacked twice. This has reduced the acceptability of UN assurances. All in all, the biggest loser in this fight is the world.
Germany, its new government and its chancellor are the big winners in this war. Chancellor Schultz is showing signs of stepping down from his predecessor, Angela Merkel.Merkel made Germany very dependent on Russian energy. Olaf has canceled the Shaltz gas pipeline project, promised to double defense spending and decided to supply arms to Ukraine. Schultz's decision to keep Germany without Russian gas would weaken Russia, even if it took years to implement. US President Joe Biden also benefited from the war. He has shown prudence in most cases.
You must be logged in to post a comment.