Some day in the next few years, if you’re on the right stretch of highway in America’s Sunbelt, you are likely to have the disconcerting experience of pulling alongside a fully loaded semi truck, glancing at the cab, and seeing no one behind the wheel at all.
Unless you look closely, the truck you’re likely to see will look very much like a regular big rig. It will still have a steering wheel—twitching, as if moved by ghostly hands. It will also have those oversize rearview mirrors trucks have, only these will be even more exaggerated in scale, since they will double as mounts for sensors—including radar and cameras—that help the truck see things even an experienced human driver might miss.
This truck won’t be as smart or adaptable as a human, but it will have superhuman senses, and won’t need to rest. What’s more, it won’t be susceptible to many of the pitfalls that have made autonomy in passenger vehicles largely a disappointment, with companies blowing past one self-imposed deadline after another. While the self-driving passenger-vehicle industry struggles to gain traction despite decades and tens of billions of dollars in investment, proponents of self-driving trucks say they could be here—and making money for their operators in commercial services—much soon.
When it gains widespread traction, robot trucking will have big implications for how we move goods around America—and for the companies and people involved in that process. For starters, it could help alleviate a chronic shortage of drivers, who are retiring faster than they can be replaced, leading to what the American Trucking Associations claims is a historic shortage of 80,000 drivers.
Here’s the promise of robot trucks: While full self-driving in all conditions is still a pipe dream, engineers seem to be close to achieving it in limited circumstances, such as on highways on clear days. And highway driving, in good weather, happens to be exactly the context in which long-haul trucks operate for a substantial portion of the time.
Highways also have the virtue of being relatively free of pedestrians, bicyclists, animals and children chasing after balls, and they tend to be well-marked and well-maintained.
Highways in Southwestern states, where the weather is generally good, are where autonomous trucking companies are currently testing their systems, carrying real loads for actual clients like FedEx and UPS, albeit with safety drivers behind the wheel in case the AI systems make a mistake—which they still do.
So, in good weather, a robot truck will see farther than a person can. It will never grow drowsy or inattentive. It will be able to operate 24 hours a day, stopping only for fuel and maintenance.
Now, there are also reasons to discount claims about commercial autonomous trucking happening in the next couple of years, or making a big difference anytime soon.
For one, the younger companies trying to pioneer the technology have to sustain the interest of investors until they start making money.
For example, has said that it will lose money until 2027. Shares in the company, which went public via SPAC in November 2021, are currently trading at about one-quarter of the $10 they sold for at their debut.
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