Experts from around the world are watching how the Ukraine-Russia war will end, and several are offering their own analysis on what will happen next. The two countries have been at war with each other since 2014, but after more than three years of fighting, some people are wondering when the dispute will finally be settled—and what that might look like. Here’s an overview of where experts stand on the situation.
What are the Experts saying?
As officials from Russia and Ukraine remain at odds over a resolution to their border dispute, experts are taking a closer look at what a peace agreement would have to include. Among other things, it would have to include autonomy for Ukrainian provinces that border Russia. Neutral analysis on any aspect of international conflict can be tough to come by, but when it comes to territorial disputes between states there’s no such thing as an expert opinion – everyone has one. The best way to tell which experts are worth paying attention to is looking at whose views align with those of an organization you trust or source you follow regularly. In terms of how these conflicts tend to play out historically, history provides good insight into how long conflict might last and how serious matters may get. For example, in 2008 Georgia and Russia fought a short war over South Ossetia. Afterward, Russian troops were stationed in South Ossetia and Abkhazia (both autonomous regions within Georgia) until 2014 when they withdrew following political pressure from Western countries like France and Germany
What I think will happen next
While I agree that it's important to keep an eye on what Russia is doing in Ukraine, I don't think there's much to be gained from forecasting out how things will look a year or two from now. Things change quickly, and it's more important to understand how we got here than to predict where we're going next. A historical analogy: To get a sense of where things might be headed, it helps to compare today's situation with some other instances of interstate conflict. It would also help if you could throw in some helpful examples from Europe’s not-so-distant past.
Final thoughts
Although many experts agree that more fighting is likely, not everyone thinks it will be a fast or easy victory for Russia. I think Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a great strategic mistake for all kinds of reasons, said Stefan Meister, an expert with Germany’s DGAP foreign policy think tank. One should never invade a country if one cannot occupy it completely and control everything. This is impossible in Ukraine because of its size and difficult geography. So far, Russia has been unable to occupy any part of eastern Ukraine. As long as they do not succeed in doing so, they will have to keep sending troops into Ukraine and suffer losses there. And even then they won't be able to defeat Ukrainian forces decisively: The Ukrainian army isn't strong enough to defend itself against Russian aggression but at least it can inflict serious losses on them. That's why I don't see how Putin can win militarily without risking a large number of casualties among his own soldiers—and thus losing politically as well.
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