Introduction:-
1. The Ukraine conflict is as old as the rivalry between Russia and the USA and other stakeholders in the cold War. Ukraine was a country that played a pivotal role in changing the world order post-cold war. The superpowers have great influence in Ukraine, and it is sandwiched between Russia and other superpowers for many decades. Fortunately, Ukraine was rich culturally, politically, and economically when it was being a part of the former USSR. For now, it has close ties with Russia in terms of trade, politics, and socially. All these factors compelled Russia to maintain its influence in Ukraine. Anyways, the Russian influence is not only the triggering point of conflict in Ukraine. The Western Institutions including the EU, NATO have created their ties with Ukraine just to minimize the influence of Russia, which is troublesome. The US- a longstanding rival of Russia - trying its best, along with its allies, to counter the influence of Russia in Ukraine. Ukraine is somehow rich due to natural resources, every country has its eyes on Ukrainian resources. However, the people of Ukraine have explicitly shown their wish to be a part of the EU. This wish is totally against the wish of Russia because it will minimize its influence in Ukraine. Thus, Russia is trying its best to destabilize the security situation in Ukraine in order to slow down Ukraine’s trade, economic growth, and most importantly its political independence. Russia wants to achieve its interests beyond the stability of Ukraine. The paragraphs below have discussed the Ukrainian crisis by illustrating its historical background, current situation, and interests of stakeholders.
History of Ukrainian Crisis
2. In November 2013, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych decided a historical decision against the will of the people to reject Ukraine’s integration with the EU. The people of Ukraine came out against the government and started mass protests that triggered the conflict in Ukraine. However, the government took various actions against the protestors that further deteriorated the situation and turmoil surged. The protestors received the complete support of the US and the EU, along with their allies. On the other hand, the government of Ukraine was under the direct influence of Russia. Some analysts say that Russia Compelled president Viktor to take this decision. Unfortunately, the protests did not stop, and the next year in February the president left the state without resolving the crisis, that is another poor move to increase conflict. The very same year, in March, Russia took control of the Crimean Region with force, and later on, annexed it. The main reason behind the annexation was the complete support of local people to the Russian government in the local referendum conducted by Russia itself. Vladimir Putin - the Russian president welcomed the decision of the local people and called it a “ fair chance” in order to protect their rights and self-determination. Likewise, an ethnic division was created by the Russian Federation that again enhanced the conflict. In Donetsk and Luhansk, mainly eastern regions of Ukraine, another referendum was held by local separatists in order to join Russia by declaring their independence. Russia supported their move and started cross-border shelling to create violence in the Eastern Region of Ukraine, which Russia denied later. Many people were killed and injured during this cross-border shelling that heightened the Ukraine crisis.
3. The same year, the crisis once again surged when Ukraine shot down the Malaysian Plane that almost killed all passengers on board. After this situation, the local conflict changed into an international conflict. The US and its allies came out with a firm stance against Russian aggression because the Dutch air investigated, and, according to its investigation, Russia was behind the shot down of the Malaysian Plane by using a surface-to-air missile. An agreement was signed between Russia and the USA and The EU but it ended up in an unsuccussfully move. In 2017, Ukraine once again became a target of many cyberattacks that created a huge loss of billions of dollars.
Current Situation
4. Ukraine has successfully become a part of NATO but still, the Russian influence is nowhere to minimize, especially in people having ethnic affiliation with Russia. The country is still sandwiched between the global powers, and its economic situation is deteriorating day-by-day due to decreased FDI as a result of the crisis. The state is naturally blessed with natural resources, it has exclusive agriculture and tech-sector, but its economy is not in a stable state. Thus, the current situation in Ukraine is not good, and it becomes a flash point of rivalry between global powers.
Russia’s Interests in Ukraine
5. Russia considers Ukraine as a center point of its identity due to deep cultural values, ethnicity, and many other factors. Therefore, Russia has much interest in Ukraine.
Russia’s Affiliation with Ukraine. Russia has longstanding family ties with Ukraine that are not new but maintained for centuries. Russia has a view that Kiev is a capital that has a direct cultural association with major cities of Russia. Because Kiev was a city where Christianity started and spread to another part of the former USSR. Last, the Russian diaspora in Kiev is another thing compelling Russia to have its influence in Ukraine.
Former Status of USSR. Many analysts believe that the fall of the USSR is due to the separation of Ukraine from it. The administration in Russia also believe that maintaining its influence in Ukraine will create a better image of Russia in the world, which is a fool’s paradise.
Russia’s Trade Ties. Russia has had strong trade ties with Ukraine for decades. Russia was in the aim of creating a single trade market by pulling Ukraine into it due to its richness in natural resources. Another thing Russia is considering is to complete a gas pipeline “Nord Stream II” via the Baltic Sea that is against the stability of Ukraine because if this project will complete Ukraine will face severe loss of revenue.
Political Influence. To achieve its interest, Russia is trying hard to maintain its political influence in Ukraine. Russia is supporting every government’s move that is creating instability in Ukraine and creating more influence of Russia among local people.
Foot Hold in the Black Sea. Russia wants to solidify its foothold in the Black Sea region. Because the strong foothold of Russia in the Black Sea Region will give Russia an advantage to project its military power in the Middle East, Mediterranean region, and North Africa.
The Reaction of the US and EU
6. The reaction of the US and EU in Ukraine is just to minimize or completely wipe out the influence of Russia. The annexation move of Russia compelled the US and the EU to come into play and take every possible step to maintain the sovereignty of Ukraine. The US and its allies tried their best to make Ukraine a part of NATO forces. The member states of the EU also pay focal attention to creating opportunities for Ukraine so that the local people’s wish of joining the EU becomes to fulfill. On the political front, the US and the Eu are trying to root out corruption in Ukraine at all government levels, which will definitely decrease the Russian influence. They are also assisting Ukraine to have its rule of law and military power in line to maintain its sovereignty. On the economical front, the US and the EU have tried their best to bring reforms of privatization of small industries, especially the tech sector. Moreover, the duo is minimized the military and economic assistance to Ukraine and imposed a number of sanctions and penalties to minimize the crisis.
Possible Way Out
7. These are the following possible way out to resolve the Ukraine crisis:
Bring Political Autonomous. Without political autonomy, Ukraine will not have any solution to its conflict. Corruption should be rooted out from all levels of the government. Also, there should be a federal form of government in Ukraine because people belong to diverse cultures and speak different languages. So, this form of government will work best in the state. Every state will have its own constitution and enough freedom after the establishment of a federal form of government. Thus, the political crisis will be reduced further, give reduction to other crises.
Economic Prosperity. The state is facing severe economic deterioration since the start of the conflict. The countries should work in collaboration to make Ukraine a prosperous state in terms of economy. The government should pay attention to increasing its FDI by utilizing its natural resources.
Commitment to Principles of Minsk II Agreement. Russia and other allied states made an agreement to overcome the conflict in Ukraine. But unfortunately, no one followed the principles of that agreement. The country is in need of following the principles of this agreement “Minsk II”. For this, the EU and the US should negotiate with Russia and the key government of the state and convince them to follow the agreement, for the betterment of the state.
Conclusion
8. To conclude, the conflict in Ukraine is due to the power rivalry among the global power. Russia has a keen interest in Ukraine; thus, it is trying its best to destabilize the states for personal gain. On the other hand, the US and the EU are trying their best to counter Russian influence in the states. The tug of war between great powers is further aggravating the situation. However, the federal form of government, commitment to the Minsk II agreement, and economic prosperity in the states will minimize the crisis.
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