There are still small, regional conflicts in the world. Ethiopia is embroiled in a civil war and 14,000 people have been killed in the conflict in Ukraine since 2014. The incursion into Syria continues and the so-called Islamic State extremist group continues to operate in parts of Africa.
On the other hand, Russian forces are gathering on the borders of Ukraine and Russia has demanded from NATO to expel some of its member countries from NATO, while China is also making loud statements for the recapture of Taiwan. Even if it means using force. But what will be the future of the wars of the world powers and are the Western countries ready to face the coming challenges? The time for "future wars" has come. Many aspects of the major conflicts between the West and Russia and China have so far been developed and successfully tested. Russia test-fired a missile into space on November 16, destroying one of its own satellites. In the summer, China tested its advanced hypersonic missiles, which can travel many times faster than the speed of sound.
Michelle Flourney has been the US Strategic Policy Chief at the Pentagon under President Clinton and Obama. He believes that the West's focus on the Middle East over the past two decades has given its opponents an opportunity to increase their military capabilities. "Indeed, we are at a strategic point where we (the United States, the United Kingdom and our allies) are coming out of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, after 20 years of focus on counter-terrorism and counter-infiltration, and realize that We are facing a very tough competition between the world powers.
She was referring to Russia and China, which were described by a British security survey as a "serious threat" to the West and a long-term "strategic adversary". "When we turned our attention to the Middle East, these countries worked hard on the Western war, and they started investing heavily in many new technologies," she said.
And the focus of this investment has been on cyber activities, including attacks aimed at undermining the foundations of Western society, influencing elections, and stealing sensitive data. All of this is well below the level of 'war' and most of it can be denied. But what if the recent tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine, or the recent tensions between the United States and China over Taiwan, turned into regular animosity? The purpose of the International Institute for Strategic Studies is to use data for China's military advantage. Mia Novens, a senior research fellow at the institute, says: "I think it's going to be in a very fast-paced environment that will be very dependent on the information sector.
"China's People's Liberation Army has created a new organization called the Strategic Support Force, which is working on space, electronic warfare and cyber capabilities," she said. What does all this mean in practice? Any conflict will start with major cyber attacks from both sides. Attempts will be made to "blind" the enemy by damaging their communications, including satellites, and even cutting off submarine cables. I asked Franz Stefan Gaddy, a future war expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, what it would mean for you and me. Could our phones suddenly stop working, petrol stations may dry up and bargain shops may be in chaos?
AI will probably play a major role in the war of the future. This will reduce the time it takes for commanders to make decisions and respond, allowing them to understand information faster than ever before. Here, the United States has a quality advantage over its potential opponents. Michelle Flourney believes it can make up for the shortfall in places where the West does not have a numerical advantage over China's People's Liberation Army.
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