How Angry Arab Voters Can Endanger Biden

In 2020, the Muslim vote in the seven 'swing states' of the US president played a key role in Biden's victory over Donald Trump. Biden's unreserved support for Israel, despite the indiscriminate attacks on Gaza that have killed civilians, has angered Muslims.

About the year 1948. The United Kingdom and France have decided to divide the Arab-dominated territory of Palestine and establish a new state of Israel for Jews from Europe. The United States also agrees with them. In the newly formed United Nations, a resolution was passed to divide the historic Palestine into two parts due to British stubbornness and American cunning. It was decided that 56 percent of the land of Palestine would be divided for six and a half million Jews. 1.5 million Palestinians will get the remaining 44 percent. Again, a large part of that land is unsuitable for living and farming.

Neither the Palestinians nor any Arab country agrees to such a proposal. From Cairo to Baghdad—protests over the Palestinian partition plan have erupted everywhere. Fear of rebellion in Transjordan. But President Harry S. Truman agreed to this decision considering his political interests.

By his reckoning, American Jewry would give him strong support if he supported the proposal. Again, 26 senators close to the Jewish lobby have made it clear that if they do not support the plan to divide Palestine, they will block the allocation of money for the ambitious plan for the reconstruction of post-war Europe. Truman put it as pressure.

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King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud of Saudi Arabia sent an urgent letter to Truman as a last resort. He reminded Truman that he and Roosevelt had agreed not to create a Jewish state in Palestine. They discussed this question on a Suez Canal cruise just two months before Roosevelt's sudden death in April 1945.

In that letter dated October 26, 1947, the Saudi King wrote, 'In order to protect the political and commercial interests of our two countries, I request you to change your decision to establish a Jewish state before the situation deteriorates further. The Zionist occupation of Palestinian land and US support for it is not only unfriendly to the Arabs, but also contrary to the promises of President Roosevelt.

Many top US State Department officials were also opposed to recognizing Israel without consideration. The strongest opposition came from Truman's Chief of Staff, George Marshall. To avoid bloodshed in Palestine, he made a strong case for transferring the administration of a partitioned Palestine to the United Nations rather than creating an independent Jewish state at this time.

But Truman's account is different. With the election just a few months away, he would have to count on the Jewish vote to win it. Republican candidate Thomas Dewey has already mounted a strong challenge. Ahead of the final decision, US diplomats working in the Middle East held an emergency meeting at the White House. Most of them are against recognition at the moment. Ignoring their views, Truman said he favored recognizing the new Jewish state. Said, 'I don't have an Arab vote, but I do have a Jewish vote.'

On May 14, 1948, Israel unilaterally declared independence. Just 11 minutes after their announcement, President Truman recognized Israel.

This narrative of history is fairly well known and accepted. The Washington Post has recently added a new piece of information after reviewing secret documents kept in the Truman Library. According to the study, in a secret message sent in 1947, King Ibn Saud promised not to join the Arabs in a war over the partition of Palestine. Not only that, he will also encourage other Arab countries not to join this fight. In return, he asked Truman for a US guarantee of Saudi Arabia's security.

The complex calculation of the Arab vote in the United States

Now we take the story from 1948 to 2024. US presidential election next year. Joe Biden is likely to face his old rival Donald Trump. This time the main determining factor in the election will be the Arab vote, not the Jews.

Truman argued in 1948 that he had no Arab voters. As a result, he does not fear any negative reaction to his decision on the question of recognizing Israel. There is no reason to think that the same equation will work in 2024. That's not because the Arab vote in the United States has suddenly increased or the Jewish vote has decreased. The main reason is the very nature of America's electoral system.

As we know, the outcome of the US presidential election is determined by electoral votes, not total votes. At least 270 electoral votes are needed to win. Each state has a predetermined number of electoral votes, determined on the basis of population. For example, New York has 28 electoral votes based on current population. The candidate who receives the highest number of votes in a state will receive all the electoral votes of that state. Whoever secures 270 electoral votes will be elected President.

As a result, he may not get the highest number of votes in the entire country, but he will win by getting the necessary electoral votes. For example, in the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton lost 304-227 electoral votes to her Republican rival, Donald Trump, despite getting more than 300,000 votes. In 2020, however, Biden not only received more electoral votes (306-232), but almost 7 million more votes than Trump.

Now let's look at the 2024 poll map. The American electoral system has now reached a stage where it is possible to predict in advance who will win a state. Democrats won most urban and populous states, Republicans won most rural and sparsely populated states. Such is the picture of the last few elections. Only a handful of five-seven states are considered 'battleground states' or swing states, where it is difficult to predict who will win. There were seven such 'battleground states' in the 2020 elections. Biden was elected as the 46th President of the United States by leading by very small votes in these seven states. The reason why Donald Trump has not yet accepted defeat is because of this small gap in the polls.

Electoral votes in these seven states in 2024 are expected to decide the outcome. These states are Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada and North Carolina. The 2020 elections were decided by margins of just 3 percent or less of the votes cast in these seven states. In other words, 50,000 or fewer people in these states elected the 46th president of the United States.

Arabs angry at Biden's role

I don't know how many Jewish votes there were in any state in 1948. But we got a rough estimate of how many Arab and Muslim votes a state has in 2024. That's the concern for Biden.

The ongoing all-out war in Gaza and the indiscriminate Israeli attacks that have killed more than 10,000 Palestinians, including 4,000 children, have caused intense pain and anger among Arab and Muslim voters in the United States. The Biden administration is giving Israel virtually unconditional support in this war. They have not stopped the Israeli attack as justified self-defense, they are also supporting it with money, troops and ammunition.

President Biden has also been seen supporting Israeli propaganda in this war without evidence. For example, he has said, despite being untrue, that he has seen evidence of child beheadings at the hands of Hamas. The White House later said, "No, that's not true." He also said he does not believe the Hamas administration's claim that a large number of Gazan civilians have been killed by Israel. However, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the United Nations have said that the information is correct.