It's an old adage, but it's true: calamities aren't triggered by a single blunder. To result in a tragedy, several things must go wrong at the same moment.
That appears to be what happened off the coast of Hokkaido in northern Japan on Saturday afternoon.
The Shiretoko Peninsula is a breathtaking location. It juts out into the northern Pacific, surrounded by densely forested mountains and waterfalls cascading down high cliffs into the sea.
The peninsula's northern half is a national park and a UNESCO World Heritage Site. It also has the largest population of Ussuri brown bears in Japan, which are near relatives of the North American grizzly bear.
Tourists come to observe the bears in addition to the amazing natural scenery. The best way to see them is from a boat. Some organizations claim to have a 90-95 percent success rate in obtaining bear sightings for their clientele.
The Kazu 1 tour boat left the little fishing port of Utoro at 10 a.m. on Saturday morning, traveling up the peninsula.
The boat has a capacity of 65 passengers, but just 24 tourists were on board on Saturday. They had traveled from all around Japan to attend. Two tiny toddlers, one of whom was just three years old, were present.
The weather was unfavorable. Strong gusts and three-meter (nine-foot) seas accompanied the storm. This should have been sufficient to make the boat turn around.
Local fishing boats were traveling in the opposite direction, returning to port to take refuge as the Kazu 1 proceeded north into heavy seas.
The Kazu 1 tour boat left the little fishing port of Utoro at 10 a.m. on Saturday morning, traveling up the peninsula.
Another tour boat captain claims he advised the captain of the Kazu 1 that it was too risky to venture out. He claims, however, that he was disregarded.
The Kazu 1 tour boat left the little fishing port of Utoro at 10 a.m. on Saturday morning, traveling up the peninsula.
The captain of the Kazu 1 was unskilled at skippering at sea.
He had been trained to run lake boats but was hired by the Shiretoko Pleasure Cruise firm to replace more experienced skippers who had been "let go" by the owner, according to Japanese media.
After two earlier safety issues in 2021, including a grounding, the corporation was already under investigation.
The Kazu 1 tour boat left the little fishing port of Utoro at 10 a.m. on Saturday morning, traveling up the peninsula.
The coast guard got a distress call shortly after 1 p.m. on Saturday. The Kazu 1 was drifting near the Kashuni Falls with a disabled engine and taking on water. This area of the peninsula is exceptionally harsh, with few beaches and cliffs that plunge right into the sea.
The water is still very chilly in April, only a few degrees above freezing.
You'd think that a passenger boat sailing in icy seas would be necessary to have life rafts on board in Japan, where safety is practically a national motto.
The Kazu 1 tour boat left the little fishing port of Utoro at 10 a.m. on Saturday morning, traveling up the peninsula.
However, this is not the case. Rafts are not required for in-shore passenger vessels.
Passengers on the Kazu 1 could only cling to life vests and floats. Experts estimate that an average human would only survive an hour if thrown into the frigid waters off northern Hokkaido in April. Much less for a child.
But it would take an hour, if not two, for help to come. The first coastguard helicopter would not arrive at Kashuni Falls for another three hours after the initial emergency call.
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