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The official characterized Russian behavior in the course of the invasion as “risk averse” toward engaging Russian troops but would not speculate on whether that aversion appeared to be emanating from Moscow or from field commanders.
Russia has now committed more than 80% of its “pre-staged combat power” to Ukraine, according to the official. Attacks, however, intensified on the sixth day of the invasion with a new push against civilian areas and government buildings thought to be aimed at demoralizing the Ukrainian resistance. One shelling targeted a government building in the central square of Ukraine’s second-largest city Kharkiv and prompted backlash that includes accusations of terrorism.
Russia’s Defense Ministry has sent an ominous message to residents of the capital city of Kyiv, urging them to “leave their homes,” according to a translated statement published by Tass, the Russian state news service.
The Russian troops – part of a reportedly 40-mile convoy – are still advancing on the city, but there was “no appreciable movement” so far on Tuesday, according to the defense official. And its pause – leaving the massive column of Russian soldiers and equipment vulnerable to attack – seems to be a subject of great speculation.
“One reason why things appear to be stalled north of Kyiv is that the Russians themselves are regrouping and rethinking and trying to adjust to the challenges that they've had,” the official added.
The U.S. is seeing evidence of “fairly slow and stodgy progress” and morale issues among Russian forces on the ground in Ukraine – and even some cases of troops surrendering “sometimes without a fight.”
A senior defense official, speaking to reporters Tuesday on background, noted that the Russian forces are relying mostly on conscripts – or draftees – and not all volunteers and are “none too pleased about the logistics and sustainment challenges they've had.” There is even evidence that convoys, in addition to running out of gas, are now also running out of food, the official added.“I think the Russians have been surprised by the resistance that they have faced,” the official said. “I think the Russians have been surprised by some of the morale problems that they're experiencing … Was it failure of planning and pre-positioning or has it been a failure in the execution? There could be lots of reasons for this, not to mention the resistance.”
The official said a significant number of Russian forces could be characterized as “very young men” and that “not all of them are apparently fully trained and prepared or even aware that they were going to be sent into a combat operation.” That wasn’t necessarily a surprise to U.S. military analysts, the official noted, given the high percentage of draftees in the Russian army.
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